luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

49ers at Browns, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns stole one. They beat the 49ers 19–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 79 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 76% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:09 left): J. Moody missed 41-yard field goal, worth 45 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 17
Cleveland Browns 19

October 15, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −9.5

Luck index +82 Browns very lucky · −82 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Browns win 2.

  1. 1 SF 42 CLE 10
  2. 2 SF 33 CLE 10
  3. 3 SF 30 CLE 12
  4. 4 SF 27 CLE 13
  5. 5 SF 24 CLE 13
  6. 6 SF 24 CLE 17
  7. 7 SF 29 CLE 24
  8. 8 SF 16 CLE 14
  9. 9 SF 20 CLE 23
  10. 10 SF 25 CLE 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 82% of them, Browns 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+41.1%
49ers by 9–1621.1%
49ers by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation1.9%
Browns by 1–810.3%
Browns by 9–164.0%
Browns by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 2, without the luck 49ers by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 54 yds missed · 60% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 47 yds missed · 72% expected
  • J. Moody, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 46 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Moody, 41 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: 49ers 12 for 105 yards, Browns 13 for 119 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 15 yards +5% SF +2.1 pts
Q1 13:08 Face Mask on the Browns (Za'Darius Smith), 15 yards +4% SF +1.0 pts
Q1 7:59 False Start on the 49ers (George Kittle), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.3 pts
Q1 5:23 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% SF +4.0 pts
Q1 2:56 Illegal Use of Hands on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% CLE +2.0 pts
Q1 2:18 Face Mask on the 49ers (Ambry Thomas), 15 yards +4% CLE +1.4 pts
Q2 12:42 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.7 pts
Q2 5:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 7 yards +2% SF +1.0 pts
Q2 2:48 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% SF +0.3 pts
Q2 1:54 Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 0:47 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (P.J. Walker), 10 yards +4% SF +1.1 pts
Q2 0:34 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (George Odum), 4 yards +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q3 10:08 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 10 yards +6% SF +0.5 pts
Q3 5:58 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the 49ers (Shemar Jean-Charles), 15 yards +6% CLE +1.4 pts
Q3 2:59 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% CLE +1.7 pts
Q3 2:31 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.5 pts
Q4 13:27 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SF +0.9 pts
Q4 12:25 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 10 yards +1% SF +0.8 pts
Q4 11:41 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% SF +1.9 pts
Q4 9:35 Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Javon Hargrave), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% SF +0.1 pts
Q4 3:21 Intentional Grounding on the 49ers (Brock Purdy), 11 yards +5% CLE +1.3 pts
Q4 2:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers, 15 yards +10% CLE +1.7 pts
Q4 2:35 Defensive Holding on the 49ers, 5 yards +2% CLE +0.3 pts
Q4 1:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 7 yards +9% SF +0.9 pts
Q4 0:09 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns, 15 yards +7% SF +1.4 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:23 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% SF SF: Punt
2 Q2 5:43 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +10% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:17 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% CLE SF: Punt
4 Q4 6:52 The Browns converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +11% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q4 4:10 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +21% SF CLE: Field goal
6 Q4 2:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
7 Q4 0:49 The 49ers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +11% SF SF: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:09 The game turned hereJ. Moody missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for himUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns, 15 yardsJudgment calls +45% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Joel Bitonio (CLE G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dre Greenlaw (SF LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 64% · Browns 36%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
5.1 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
49ers 82% · Browns 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · 49ers · Browns

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