luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Vikings at Bears, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bears 19–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: drops alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:58 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 37 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 19
Chicago Bears 13

October 15, 2023 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +33 Vikings lucky · −33 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 7, Bears win 3.

  1. 1 MIN 26 CHI 3
  2. 2 MIN 31 CHI 13
  3. 3 MIN 21 CHI 7
  4. 4 MIN 33 CHI 23
  5. 5 MIN 22 CHI 16
  6. 6 MIN 23 CHI 20
  7. 7 MIN 26 CHI 24
  8. 8 MIN 16 CHI 19
  9. 9 MIN 20 CHI 27
  10. 10 MIN 0 CHI 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 67% of them, Bears 33%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+18.7%
Vikings by 9–1619.8%
Vikings by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation2.4%
Bears by 1–817.3%
Bears by 9–1610.0%
Bears by 17+5.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.8 points to the Bears: the final margin was Vikings by 6, without the luck Vikings by 18.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 53 yds made · 57% expected
  • C. Santos, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Joseph, 51 yds made · 61% expected
  • C. Santos, 53 yds made · 60% expected
  • G. Joseph, 57 yds missed · 51% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 5 for 63 yards, Bears 5 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Andrew Billings), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.6 pts
Q1 3:44 False Start on the Bears, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +1.1 pts
Q2 0:28 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 5 yards +1% CHI +0.1 pts
Q3 9:00 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 2 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.6 pts
Q3 8:26 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Dylan Cole), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 6:44 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Joejuan Williams), 10 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 5:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Akayleb Evans), 36 yards +6% CHI +3.9 pts
Q3 1:31 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (T.J. Hockenson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% CHI +1.8 pts
Q4 7:46 Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Kirk Cousins), 10 yards +2% CHI +0.9 pts
Q4 0:01 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.1 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:34 The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% MIN MIN: Field goal
2 Q2 11:05 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
3 Q2 8:50 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CHI CHI: Punt
4 Q2 2:53 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% CHI MIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:59 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% MIN CHI: End of half
6 Q3 10:43 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% MIN CHI: Punt
7 Q3 6:58 The Bears fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +37% MIN CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:05 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braxton Jones (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Terell Smith (CHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Jefferson (MIN WR), out (IR) · 1.7 pts
  • Chris Reed (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 99% · Bears 1%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
12.8 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 18.8
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 67% · Bears 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Vikings · Bears

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