luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Lions at Buccaneers, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Buccaneers 20–6, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Lions win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:27 left): the Lions converted 3rd & 10, worth 18 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

October 15, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Lions −3

Luck index +42 Lions lucky · −42 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 6, Buccaneers win 4.

  1. 1 DET 27 TB 3
  2. 2 DET 34 TB 20
  3. 3 DET 27 TB 17
  4. 4 DET 30 TB 23
  5. 5 DET 17 TB 13
  6. 6 DET 36 TB 34
  7. 7 DET 24 TB 26
  8. 8 DET 17 TB 23
  9. 9 DET 13 TB 23
  10. 10 DET 10 TB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 58% of them, Buccaneers 42%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+10.6%
Lions by 9–1614.9%
Lions by 1–824.8%
Level after regulation7.4%
Buccaneers by 1–822.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1613.3%
Buccaneers by 17+6.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Lions by 14, without the luck Lions by 15.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Patterson, 52 yds missed · 66% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Patterson, 36 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 5 for 35 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 33 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:09 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Kaevon Merriweather), 8 yards +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q1 5:24 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Ifeatu Melifonwu), 10 yards +1% TB +1.1 pts
Q2 11:32 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.8 pts
Q2 8:31 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Will Harris), 5 yards +4% TB +0.8 pts
Q2 4:24 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.7 pts
Q3 7:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards +9% DET +1.6 pts
Q3 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 10 yards +8% TB +3.0 pts
Q3 0:26 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers, 5 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts
Q3 0:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 9:51 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.7 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:12 The Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% DET TB: Punt
2 Q2 10:32 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% TB TB: Field goal
3 Q2 2:49 The Lions converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +14% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:50 The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% DET DET: End of half
5 Q3 7:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 4092 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +9% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q3 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1981 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +8% TB TB: Punt
7 Q3 4:22 The Lions converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:27 The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +18% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Walton (TB G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Nelson (TB LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Houston (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 98% · Buccaneers 2%

Final margin
Lions by 14
Luck in points
1.1 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 15.1
Replay with same day's form
Lions 58% · Buccaneers 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Lions · Buccaneers

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