luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Panthers at Dolphins, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Panthers 42–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:00 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 6, worth 11 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Carolina Panthers 21
Miami Dolphins 42

October 15, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −14

Luck index +3 Dolphins about even · −3 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Dolphins win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 20 MIA 23
  2. 2 CAR 13 MIA 20
  3. 3 CAR 20 MIA 31
  4. 4 CAR 26 MIA 41
  5. 5 CAR 20 MIA 37
  6. 6 CAR 27 MIA 48
  7. 7 CAR 13 MIA 38
  8. 8 CAR 6 MIA 34
  9. 9 CAR 13 MIA 47
  10. 10 CAR 7 MIA 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 3% of them, Dolphins 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.1%
Panthers by 9–160.4%
Panthers by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Dolphins by 1–86.8%
Dolphins by 9–1615.6%
Dolphins by 17+74.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.6 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 21, without the luck Dolphins by 10.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Panthers 3 for 11 yards, Dolphins 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:38 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +1.1 pts
Q2 2:00 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 15 yards +4% CAR +1.1 pts
Q3 10:13 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 12:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jeremy Chinn), 1 yard 0% MIA +0.5 pts
Q4 6:10 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Parry Nickerson), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAR +1.0 pts
Q4 4:26 Illegal Formation on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.5 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:03 The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 4:51 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:33 T. Hill dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 184 catchable balls before this +6% CAR MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:30 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:00 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3968 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +11% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:29 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% MIA CAR: Missed field goal
7 Q3 12:18 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% MIA CAR: Punt
8 Q3 2:35 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedD. Chark dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 53 catchable balls before this +6% MIA CAR: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Connor Williams (MIA C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Connor Williams (MIA G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Keion Crossen (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Vonn Bell (CAR SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Woods (CAR FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Miles Sanders (CAR RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chandler Zavala (CAR G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 1% · Dolphins 99%

Final margin
Dolphins by 21
Luck in points
10.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 3% · Dolphins 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Panthers · Dolphins

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