2023 season · final

Carolina Panthers, 2023: game by game

The Panthers went 2–15 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.8 wins. Luck cost them 0.8: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Falcons	L 10–24	32%	−32
Week 2	vs Saints	L 17–20	10%	−10
Week 3	@ Seahawks	L 27–37	14%	−14
Week 4	vs Vikings	L 13–21	7%	−7
Week 5	@ Lions	L 24–42	8%	−8
Week 6	@ Dolphins	L 21–42	3%	−3
Week 8	vs Texans	W 15–13	44%	+56
Week 9	vs Colts	L 13–27	20%	−20
Week 10	@ Bears	L 13–16	6%	−6
Week 11	vs Cowboys	L 10–33	6%	−6
Week 12	@ Titans	L 10–17	11%	−11
Week 13	@ Buccaneers	L 18–21	9%	−9
Week 14	@ Saints	L 6–28	7%	−7
Week 15	vs Falcons	W 9–7	56%	+44
Week 16	vs Packers	L 30–33	22%	−22
Week 17	@ Jaguars	L 0–26	5%	−5
Week 18	vs Buccaneers	L 0–9	21%	−21

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −32 @ ATL

Wk 2 −10 vs NO

Wk 3 −14 @ SEA

Wk 4 −7 vs MIN

Wk 5 −8 @ DET

Wk 6 −3 @ MIA

Wk 8 +56 vs HOU

Wk 9 −20 vs IND

Wk 10 −6 @ CHI

Wk 11 −6 vs DAL

Wk 12 −11 @ TEN

Wk 13 −9 @ TB

Wk 14 −7 @ NO

Wk 15 +44 vs ATL

Wk 16 −22 vs GB

Wk 17 −5 @ JAX

Wk 18 −21 vs TB

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.29	+7.2
Injuries	+0.08	+1.7
Fumble bounces	−0.13	−4.7
Drops	−0.14	−3.7
Kicks	−0.54	−15.1