luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Panthers at Seahawks, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Panthers 37–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:23 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 16, worth 21 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 27
Seattle Seahawks 37

September 24, 2023 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −5

Luck index +14 Seahawks about even · −14 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Seahawks win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 16 SEA 9
  2. 2 CAR 20 SEA 22
  3. 3 CAR 20 SEA 26
  4. 4 CAR 15 SEA 24
  5. 5 CAR 23 SEA 35
  6. 6 CAR 14 SEA 29
  7. 7 CAR 28 SEA 45
  8. 8 CAR 9 SEA 30
  9. 9 CAR 16 SEA 41
  10. 10 CAR 14 SEA 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 14% of them, Seahawks 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+1.4%
Panthers by 9–163.3%
Panthers by 1–89.4%
Level after regulation1.6%
Seahawks by 1–818.4%
Seahawks by 9–1620.8%
Seahawks by 17+45.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Seahawks by 10, without the luck Seahawks by 13.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 47 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Myers, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Myers, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Myers, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Myers, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 55 yds missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 13 for 82 yards, Seahawks 8 for 82 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:44 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Julian Love), 15 yards +5% CAR +2.3 pts
Q1 9:46 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA 0.0 pts
Q1 8:47 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 10 yards 0% SEA +1.0 pts
Q1 7:47 Face Mask on the Panthers (Justin Houston), 15 yards +4% SEA +1.7 pts
Q1 7:47 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 14:35 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% CAR +2.2 pts
Q2 6:24 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 5:25 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q2 4:16 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 13:53 Illegal Contact on the Panthers, 5 yards +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q3 7:35 Illegal Blindside Block on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards +1% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 6:38 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q3 2:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 12 yards +5% CAR +2.1 pts
Q3 1:22 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 1:07 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q4 12:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Deion Jones), 7 yards +3% SEA +1.4 pts
Q4 8:16 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q4 8:16 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q4 8:13 False Start on the Panthers (Chandler Wooten), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.2 pts
Q4 4:57 Illegal Shift on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% SEA +1.9 pts
Q4 1:56 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Mario Edwards), 15 yards 0% CAR +1.0 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:41 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% CAR SEA: Field goal
2 Q1 4:58 The Seahawks converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% SEA SEA: Field goal
3 Q2 5:03 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +16% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:23 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +21% CAR SEA: Field goal
5 Q3 8:22 D. Chark dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 42 catchable balls before this +7% SEA CAR: Missed field goal
6 Q3 8:14 E. Pineiro missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 18 of 20 from 45+ before +15% SEA CAR: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:05 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +12% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:16 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedFalse Start on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% SEA CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Charles Cross (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Coby Bryant (SEA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 4% · Seahawks 96%

Final margin
Seahawks by 10
Luck in points
3.2 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 13.2
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 14% · Seahawks 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Panthers · Seahawks

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