luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 9, 2023

Panthers at Bears, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Panthers 16–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Panthers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:40 left): E. Pineiro missed 59-yard field goal, worth 30 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Carolina Panthers 13
Chicago Bears 16

November 9, 2023 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −3

Luck index +6 Bears about even · −6 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Bears win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 13 CHI 7
  2. 2 CAR 17 CHI 19
  3. 3 CAR 10 CHI 15
  4. 4 CAR 10 CHI 18
  5. 5 CAR 10 CHI 20
  6. 6 CAR 3 CHI 16
  7. 7 CAR 0 CHI 15
  8. 8 CAR 6 CHI 24
  9. 9 CAR 17 CHI 38
  10. 10 CAR 10 CHI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Panthers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.

33 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained −0.14 +0.03 worse by 0.16
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.10 better by 0.13
Bears offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.10 worse by 0.14
Bears defenseEPA per play allowed −0.14 +0.17 better by 0.31

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 6% of them, Bears 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.0%
Panthers by 9–160.9%
Panthers by 1–84.0%
Level after regulation1.3%
Bears by 1–816.7%
Bears by 9–1625.0%
Bears by 17+52.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 3, without the luck Bears by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 54 yds made · 64% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Santos, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Santos, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 59 yds missed · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 5 for 45 yards, Bears 7 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:39 Illegal Contact on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 5 yards +2% CAR +0.8 pts
Q1 2:38 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +1.0 pts
Q2 10:07 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 9 yards, wiping out the play +3% CAR +1.5 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Contact on the Bears (Kyler Gordon), 5 yards +3% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 1:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Deion Jones), 15 yards +7% CHI +2.3 pts
Q3 14:04 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.5 pts
Q3 5:23 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q3 1:58 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CAR +2.7 pts
Q3 0:48 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +5% CHI +1.0 pts
Q3 0:29 Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Ihmir Smith-Marsette), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CHI +1.1 pts
Q4 14:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (DeMarcus Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 0:42 False Start on the Bears (D'Onta Foreman), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.3 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:05 Return touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +14% CAR CAR: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 5:18 The Bears converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% CHI CHI: Field goal
3 Q2 0:20 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% CHI CHI: Field goal
4 Q3 1:58 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 4293 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +8% CAR CAR: Field goal
5 Q4 13:06 The Panthers converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +14% CAR CAR: Field goal
6 Q4 11:14 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% CHI CAR: Field goal
7 Q4 2:00 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +19% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
8 Q4 1:40 E. Pineiro missed 59-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 21 of 24 from 45+ before +30% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tremaine Edmunds (CHI LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Nate Davis (CHI G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Terell Smith (CHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Khalil Herbert (CHI RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Brian Burns (CAR LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (CAR CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 45% · Bears 55%

Final margin
Bears by 3
Luck in points
2.4 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 6% · Bears 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Panthers · Bears

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