luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Colts vs Patriots, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Patriots 10–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:36 left): the Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 42 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 10
New England Patriots 6

November 12, 2023 · Deutsche Bank Park · Closing line: Colts −1

Luck index +23 Colts about even · −23 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 8, Patriots win 2.

  1. 1 IND 24 NE 0
  2. 2 IND 33 NE 16
  3. 3 IND 16 NE 3
  4. 4 IND 27 NE 17
  5. 5 IND 13 NE 6
  6. 6 IND 20 NE 15
  7. 7 IND 16 NE 13
  8. 8 IND 10 NE 9
  9. 9 IND 16 NE 19
  10. 10 IND 0 NE 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 77% of them, Patriots 23%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+20.4%
Colts by 9–1624.9%
Colts by 1–828.2%
Level after regulation4.1%
Patriots by 1–813.9%
Patriots by 9–166.5%
Patriots by 17+1.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 4, without the luck Colts by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Gay, 57 yds missed · 62% expected
  • C. Ryland, 35 yds missed · 92% expected
  • C. Ryland, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 51 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 4 for 34 yards, Patriots 5 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 3:59 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q2 2:32 False Start on the Patriots (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.4 pts
Q2 0:41 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Shaun Wade), 5 yards +1% IND +0.4 pts
Q3 13:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% NE +2.0 pts
Q3 7:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Jahlani Tavai), 15 yards +5% IND +2.3 pts
Q3 3:29 False Start on the Patriots, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +1.1 pts
Q4 8:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 15 yards +6% NE +1.5 pts
Q4 8:31 Illegal Shift on the Patriots (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% IND +2.0 pts
Q4 2:52 False Start on the Colts, 4 yards · pre-snap +8% NE +0.6 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:29 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +13% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:07 M. Gay missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 36 of 48 from 45+ before +18% NE IND: Turnover
3 Q3 13:47 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 18 flags in 3454 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +13% NE NE: Missed field goal
4 Q3 8:41 C. Ryland missed 35-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +13% IND NE: Field goal
5 Q4 8:31 Illegal Shift on the Patriots (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 8 flags in 2989 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +15% IND IND: Punt
6 Q4 7:25 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +18% NE NE: Turnover
7 Q4 4:25 The Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% IND NE: Turnover
8 Q4 0:36 The Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +42% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • DeVante Parker (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (NE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kendrick Bourne (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Judon (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dallis Flowers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Grover Stewart (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 83% · Patriots 17%

Final margin
Colts by 4
Luck in points
0.2 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Colts 77% · Patriots 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Colts · Patriots

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