luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Falcons at Cardinals, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Falcons 25–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 27 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:49 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 32 yards, worth 19 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 23
Arizona Cardinals 25

November 12, 2023 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2

Luck index +54 Cardinals lucky · −54 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 5, Cardinals win 5.

  1. 1 ATL 33 ARI 13
  2. 2 ATL 30 ARI 17
  3. 3 ATL 22 ARI 13
  4. 4 ATL 26 ARI 22
  5. 5 ATL 19 ARI 17
  6. 6 ATL 19 ARI 21
  7. 7 ATL 17 ARI 21
  8. 8 ATL 19 ARI 26
  9. 9 ATL 0 ARI 13
  10. 10 ATL 7 ARI 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 54% of them, Cardinals 46%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+10.0%
Falcons by 9–1615.7%
Falcons by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation6.5%
Cardinals by 1–824.5%
Cardinals by 9–1612.1%
Cardinals by 17+7.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Cardinals by 2, without the luck Cardinals by 6.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Prater, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • M. Prater, 56 yds made · 66% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Prater, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 4 for 43 yards, Cardinals 11 for 112 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:57 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q1 5:46 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.7 pts
Q1 5:28 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% ATL +2.0 pts
Q1 2:46 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals, 15 yards +11% ATL +2.4 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (MyCole Pruitt), 10 yards +4% ARI +1.8 pts
Q2 12:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Clark Phillips), 13 yards +6% ARI +1.2 pts
Q2 5:27 Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Starling Thomas), 5 yards +5% ATL +0.9 pts
Q2 5:22 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Roy Lopez), 5 yards +1% ATL +1.1 pts
Q2 0:22 False Start on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 14:13 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Owen Pappoe), 10 yards +4% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 10:57 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +5% ATL +1.4 pts
Q3 10:34 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +6% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 8:30 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +2% ARI +0.9 pts
Q4 12:46 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Jonnu Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% ARI +1.2 pts
Q4 3:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 32 yards +19% ATL +2.5 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:46 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:14 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +11% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:39 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% ARI ATL: Field goal
4 Q4 8:01 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +13% ARI ATL: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 32 yardsJudgment calls +19% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:39 The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:50 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +18% ARI ARI: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 M. Prater made 23-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +16% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Grady Jarrett (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Onyemata (ATL DT), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 21% · Cardinals 79%

Final margin
Cardinals by 2
Luck in points
4.6 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 54% · Cardinals 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Falcons · Cardinals

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