luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Packers at Steelers, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Packers 23–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): the Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 37 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 19
Pittsburgh Steelers 23

November 12, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3

Luck index +51 Steelers lucky · −51 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 5, Steelers win 5.

  1. 1 GB 30 PIT 7
  2. 2 GB 26 PIT 13
  3. 3 GB 28 PIT 20
  4. 4 GB 20 PIT 16
  5. 5 GB 14 PIT 13
  6. 6 GB 20 PIT 23
  7. 7 GB 9 PIT 16
  8. 8 GB 17 PIT 27
  9. 9 GB 13 PIT 27
  10. 10 GB 9 PIT 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 51% of them, Steelers 49%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+10.1%
Packers by 9–1614.2%
Packers by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation6.4%
Steelers by 1–821.9%
Steelers by 9–1615.0%
Steelers by 17+9.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to the Packers: the final margin was Steelers by 4, without the luck Steelers by 11.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • A. Carlson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Carlson, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 49 yds made · 78% expected
  • C. Boswell, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 5 for 32 yards, Steelers 3 for 27 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Carrington Valentine), 17 yards +8% PIT +2.1 pts
Q2 14:24 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards +2% PIT +1.1 pts
Q2 13:06 Illegal Contact on the Packers, 5 yards +1% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 8:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 7 yards 0% GB +0.5 pts
Q3 8:22 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +4% GB +1.7 pts
Q3 0:12 Illegal Formation on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% PIT +1.1 pts
Q4 2:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Calvin Austin III), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% GB +3.0 pts
Q4 0:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers, 0 yards 0% PIT 0.0 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:21 The Packers converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +13% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q3 5:11 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +14% GB GB: Field goal
3 Q4 11:53 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% GB GB: Punt
4 Q4 4:22 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +26% GB GB: Turnover
5 Q4 3:32 The Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% PIT GB: Turnover
6 Q4 2:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Calvin Austin III), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 284 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +12% GB GB: Turnover
7 Q4 0:17 The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +18% GB GB: Turnover
8 Q4 0:03 The Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Packers, 0 yardsJudgment calls +37% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Montravius Adams (PIT NT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 4% · Steelers 96%

Final margin
Steelers by 4
Luck in points
7.4 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 11.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 51% · Steelers 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Packers · Steelers

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