luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Jets at Raiders, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Jets 16–12, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:22 left): the Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 14 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

New York Jets 12
Las Vegas Raiders 16

November 12, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Jets −1

Luck index +52 Raiders lucky · −52 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 5, Raiders win 5.

  1. 1 NYJ 34 LV 13
  2. 2 NYJ 20 LV 7
  3. 3 NYJ 22 LV 13
  4. 4 NYJ 22 LV 17
  5. 5 NYJ 19 LV 17
  6. 6 NYJ 23 LV 25
  7. 7 NYJ 21 LV 26
  8. 8 NYJ 10 LV 19
  9. 9 NYJ 19 LV 33
  10. 10 NYJ 2 LV 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 52% of them, Raiders 48%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+9.2%
Jets by 9–1615.6%
Jets by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation6.2%
Raiders by 1–822.2%
Raiders by 9–1614.5%
Raiders by 17+9.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 4, without the luck Jets by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 47 yds made · 78% expected
  • D. Carlson, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 54 yds made · 71% expected
  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 8 for 83 yards, Raiders 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:08 Intentional Grounding on the Jets (Zach Wilson), 10 yards +2% LV +1.0 pts
Q1 8:48 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Davante Adams), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q1 2:18 Offensive Holding on the Jets (C.J. Uzomah), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LV +3.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +1% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Jets (C.J. Uzomah), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LV +3.4 pts
Q2 0:26 Roughing the Passer on the Jets, 15 yards +1% LV +1.8 pts
Q3 14:15 Chop Block on the Jets (Michael Carter), 13 yards, wiping out the play +8% LV +1.6 pts
Q3 13:53 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Xavier Gipson), 10 yards +4% LV +1.0 pts
Q3 11:31 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +9% NYJ +2.1 pts
Q3 9:55 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.4 pts
Q4 1:00 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.1 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:50 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
2 Q2 0:03 D. Carlson made 54-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 37 of 47 from 45+ before +12% LV LV: Punt
3 Q3 14:15 Chop Block on the Jets (Michael Carter), 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1099 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 +8% LV LV: Punt
4 Q3 11:31 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% NYJ NYJ: Punt
5 Q4 14:17 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +14% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:31 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +11% LV LV: Turnover
7 Q4 2:20 The Jets converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +12% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
8 Q4 1:22 The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% LV NYJ: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian Hoyer (LV QB), out, replaced by a.o'connell · 0.9 pts
  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Duane Brown (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 58% · Raiders 42%

Final margin
Raiders by 4
Luck in points
6.2 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Jets 52% · Raiders 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Jets · Raiders

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