luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Commanders at Seahawks, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Commanders 29–26, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:02 left): the Commanders converted 3rd & 10, worth 23 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 26
Seattle Seahawks 29

November 12, 2023 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −6

Luck index +45 Seahawks lucky · −45 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 5, Seahawks win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 30 SEA 9
  2. 2 WAS 34 SEA 20
  3. 3 WAS 27 SEA 18
  4. 4 WAS 36 SEA 30
  5. 5 WAS 23 SEA 21
  6. 6 WAS 17 SEA 20
  7. 7 WAS 27 SEA 34
  8. 8 WAS 20 SEA 31
  9. 9 WAS 3 SEA 19
  10. 10 WAS 10 SEA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 45% of them, Seahawks 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+11.0%
Commanders by 9–1613.8%
Commanders by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation5.3%
Seahawks by 1–819.5%
Seahawks by 9–1617.2%
Seahawks by 17+13.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 3, without the luck Commanders by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Slye, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Myers, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • J. Myers, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 6 for 39 yards, Seahawks 8 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:35 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q1 10:40 Disqualification on the Commanders (Emmanuel Forbes), 15 yards +6% SEA +1.9 pts
Q1 9:02 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +1.5 pts
Q1 6:34 False Start on the Commanders, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 6:35 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Seahawks, 5 yards +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q2 1:50 False Start on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.3 pts
Q2 0:46 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 0:26 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +5% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 0:15 Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 0 yards 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q3 8:56 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% WAS +1.6 pts
Q4 8:00 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q4 4:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 6 yards +14% SEA +2.6 pts
Q4 4:37 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q4 4:31 Face Mask on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 4 yards +1% SEA +0.7 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:30 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% SEA WAS: Punt
2 Q3 11:26 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% SEA WAS: Field goal
3 Q3 10:37 J. Slye made 47-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 37 of 55 from 45+ before +9% WAS WAS: Turnover
4 Q4 5:16 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% WAS SEA: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1686 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +14% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:08 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:02 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +23% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:03 J. Myers made 43-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +17% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Coby Bryant (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Uchenna Nwosu (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cody Barton (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 55% · Seahawks 45%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
3.6 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 45% · Seahawks 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Commanders · Seahawks

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