2023 season · final

Washington Commanders, 2023: game by game

The Commanders went 4–13 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.1 wins. Luck cost them 3.1: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.

Every game

How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Cardinals	W 20–16	88%	+12
Week 2	@ Broncos	W 35–33	46%	+54
Week 3	vs Bills	L 3–37	6%	−6
Week 4	@ Eagles	L 31–34	11%	−11
Week 5	vs Bears	L 20–40	78%	−78
Week 6	@ Falcons	W 24–16	27%	+73
Week 7	@ Giants	L 7–14	59%	−59
Week 8	vs Eagles	L 31–38	59%	−59
Week 9	@ Patriots	W 20–17	74%	+26
Week 10	@ Seahawks	L 26–29	45%	−45
Week 11	vs Giants	L 19–31	71%	−71
Week 12	@ Cowboys	L 10–45	25%	−25
Week 13	vs Dolphins	L 15–45	4%	−4
Week 15	@ Rams	L 20–28	25%	−25
Week 16	@ Jets	L 28–30	91%	−91
Week 17	vs 49ers	L 10–27	2%	−2
Week 18	vs Cowboys	L 10–38	1%	−1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +12 vs ARI

Wk 2 +54 @ DEN

Wk 3 −6 vs BUF

Wk 4 −11 @ PHI

Wk 5 −78 vs CHI

Wk 6 +73 @ ATL

Wk 7 −59 @ NYG

Wk 8 −59 vs PHI

Wk 9 +26 @ NE

Wk 10 −45 @ SEA

Wk 11 −71 vs NYG

Wk 12 −25 @ DAL

Wk 13 −4 vs MIA

Wk 15 −25 @ LA

Wk 16 −91 @ NYJ

Wk 17 −2 vs SF

Wk 18 −1 vs DAL

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Injuries	+0.51	+19.9
Judgment calls	+0.20	+5.6
Rest	+0.06	+2.4
Drops	−0.07	−4.3
Fumble bounces	−0.16	−1.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.19	−7.2
Kicks	−0.87	−12.3