luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Cardinals at Commanders, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Cardinals 20–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 70% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 4:53 left): Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 31 points of win probability to the Commanders. The biggest single swing (Q2, 1:02 left): Return touchdown by the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 16
Washington Commanders 20

September 10, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −7

Luck index +12 Commanders about even · −12 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Commanders win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 20 WAS 13
  2. 2 ARI 8 WAS 10
  3. 3 ARI 13 WAS 17
  4. 4 ARI 12 WAS 19
  5. 5 ARI 13 WAS 23
  6. 6 ARI 10 WAS 23
  7. 7 ARI 12 WAS 27
  8. 8 ARI 18 WAS 37
  9. 9 ARI 3 WAS 27
  10. 10 ARI 0 WAS 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 12% of them, Commanders 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.9%
Cardinals by 9–163.0%
Cardinals by 1–87.3%
Level after regulation2.1%
Commanders by 1–816.9%
Commanders by 9–1623.0%
Commanders by 17+46.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 4, without the luck Cardinals by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Prater, 54 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Slye, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Prater, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Slye, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 9 for 122 yards, Commanders 8 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:08 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Commanders (Christian Holmes), 10 yards +3% ARI +0.8 pts
Q1 7:45 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Commanders, 10 yards +3% ARI +0.9 pts
Q1 7:35 Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the Cardinals (Kyzir White), 15 yards +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q1 6:10 Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact on the Cardinals (Jalen Thompson), 15 yards +4% WAS +1.8 pts
Q1 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 37 yards +11% WAS +2.7 pts
Q1 0:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (John Bates), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARI +2.2 pts
Q2 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Jonathan Ledbetter), 15 yards +4% WAS +1.9 pts
Q2 8:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% WAS +1.5 pts
Q3 6:37 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARI +1.3 pts
Q3 4:03 False Start on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q3 2:54 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +5% ARI +1.4 pts
Q4 4:53 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +31% WAS +3.0 pts
Q4 4:45 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cardinals, 15 yards +6% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 2:04 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 1:00 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (John Bates), 10 yards 0% ARI +1.1 pts
Q4 0:07 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1699 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +11% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:02 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Commanders fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +60% ARI WAS: Field goal
3 Q3 0:09 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Cardinals fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% WAS ARI: Punt
4 Q4 11:54 The Commanders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:24 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% WAS WAS: Punt
6 Q4 4:58 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% ARI ARI: Turnover
7 Q4 4:53 The game turned hereIneligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +31% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q4 1:15 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Cardinals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 4.2 pts
  • Kelvin Beachum (ARI T), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 34% · Commanders 66%

Final margin
Commanders by 4
Luck in points
5.0 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 12% · Commanders 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Cardinals · Commanders

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