luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · September 7, 2023–September 11

Week 1 2023: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Buccaneers beat the Vikings 20–17 in a game they win 10% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 1 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 8 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Rams 30–13 @ Seahawks 37% 67% Deserved
Lions 21–20 @ Chiefs 38% 10% Lucky
Buccaneers 20–17 @ Vikings 38% 10% Lucky
Raiders 17–16 @ Broncos 41% 41% Coin flip
Dolphins 36–34 @ Chargers 41% 58% Coin flip
Jets 22–16 vs Bills 43% 56% Coin flip
Browns 24–3 vs Bengals 47% 88% Deserved
Packers 38–20 @ Bears 47% 58% Coin flip

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Buccaneers W 20–17 @ Vikings 10% +90
2 Lions W 21–20 @ Chiefs 10% +90
3 Raiders W 17–16 @ Broncos 41% +59
4 Jets W 22–16 vs Bills 56% +44
5 Packers W 38–20 @ Bears 58% +42
6 Dolphins W 36–34 @ Chargers 58% +42
7 Rams W 30–13 @ Seahawks 67% +33
8 Eagles W 25–20 @ Patriots 67% +33
9 Falcons W 24–10 vs Panthers 68% +32
10 49ers W 30–7 @ Steelers 70% +30
11 Ravens W 25–9 vs Texans 81% +19
12 Saints W 16–15 vs Titans 82% +18
13 Commanders W 20–16 vs Cardinals 88% +12
14 Browns W 24–3 vs Bengals 88% +12
15 Jaguars W 31–21 @ Colts 96% +4
16 Cowboys W 40–0 @ Giants 100% 0
17 Giants L 0–40 vs Cowboys 0% 0
18 Colts L 21–31 vs Jaguars 4% −4
19 Bengals L 3–24 @ Browns 12% −12
20 Cardinals L 16–20 @ Commanders 12% −12
21 Titans L 15–16 @ Saints 18% −18
22 Texans L 9–25 @ Ravens 19% −19
23 Steelers L 7–30 vs 49ers 30% −30
24 Panthers L 10–24 @ Falcons 32% −32
25 Patriots L 20–25 vs Eagles 33% −33
26 Seahawks L 13–30 vs Rams 33% −33
27 Chargers L 34–36 vs Dolphins 42% −42
28 Bears L 20–38 vs Packers 42% −42
29 Bills L 16–22 @ Jets 44% −44
30 Broncos L 16–17 vs Raiders 59% −59
31 Chiefs L 20–21 vs Lions 90% −90
32 Vikings L 17–20 vs Buccaneers 90% −90