luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Raiders at Broncos, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Broncos 17–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:11 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 34 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 17
Denver Broncos 16

September 10, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −3

Luck index +59 Raiders lucky · −59 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 4, Broncos win 6.

  1. 1 LV 28 DEN 10
  2. 2 LV 17 DEN 7
  3. 3 LV 12 DEN 7
  4. 4 LV 3 DEN 0
  5. 5 LV 14 DEN 16
  6. 6 LV 10 DEN 13
  7. 7 LV 0 DEN 6
  8. 8 LV 7 DEN 17
  9. 9 LV 0 DEN 13
  10. 10 LV 0 DEN 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 41% of them, Broncos 59%, counting the 9% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+5.3%
Raiders by 9–1611.8%
Raiders by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation9.3%
Broncos by 1–826.9%
Broncos by 9–1616.2%
Broncos by 17+7.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 1, without the luck Broncos by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Lutz, 55 yds missed · 59% expected
  • W. Lutz, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 10 for 97 yards, Broncos 10 for 83 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Touch Kick on the Broncos (Tremon Smith), 0 yards 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q1 10:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Justin Simmons), 6 yards +3% LV +1.4 pts
Q1 9:32 Taunting on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 15 yards +3% DEN +1.2 pts
Q1 9:28 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Justin Strnad), 10 yards +1% LV +0.9 pts
Q1 6:50 Illegal Motion on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% LV +1.0 pts
Q1 5:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakorian Bennett), 5 yards +4% DEN +1.4 pts
Q2 8:30 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Jerry Tillery), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% DEN +1.4 pts
Q2 7:36 Face Mask on the Raiders (Divine Deablo), 15 yards +9% DEN +1.5 pts
Q2 7:17 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Chris Manhertz), 10 yards +3% LV +0.7 pts
Q2 3:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Frank Clark), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.5 pts
Q2 0:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakorian Bennett), 17 yards +7% DEN +1.7 pts
Q3 12:34 Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play +13% DEN +3.5 pts
Q3 7:35 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DEN +0.8 pts
Q3 5:31 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Michael Mayer), 10 yards +7% DEN +1.5 pts
Q3 3:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 16 yards +10% LV +3.1 pts
Q3 3:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Damarri Mathis), 1 yard +3% LV +0.4 pts
Q3 2:19 Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +1.0 pts
Q4 13:41 Roughing the Kicker on the Raiders (Luke Masterson), 15 yards +11% DEN +4.1 pts
Q4 8:14 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Essang Bassey), 15 yards +10% LV +1.9 pts
Q4 3:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Kareem Jackson), 15 yards +11% LV +2.8 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 12:34 Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 2849 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +13% DEN DEN: Missed field goal
2 Q3 7:20 The Raiders converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% LV LV: Turnover
3 Q3 3:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2020 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% LV LV: Turnover
4 Q3 3:02 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% LV LV: Turnover
5 Q3 2:11 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +34% DEN LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 13:41 Roughing the Kicker on the Raiders (Luke Masterson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 651 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +11% DEN DEN: Field goal
7 Q4 3:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Kareem Jackson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 3961 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +11% LV LV: End of game
8 Q4 2:00 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% LV LV: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • K'Waun Williams (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Chandler Jones (LV DE), out · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 48% · Broncos 52%

Final margin
Raiders by 1
Luck in points
1.9 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 41% · Broncos 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Raiders · Broncos

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