luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Titans at Saints, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Titans 16–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:28 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 7, worth 16 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Tennessee Titans 15
New Orleans Saints 16

September 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3

Luck index +18 Saints about even · −18 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 2, Saints win 8.

  1. 1 TEN 19 NO 7
  2. 2 TEN 20 NO 17
  3. 3 TEN 24 NO 27
  4. 4 TEN 21 NO 27
  5. 5 TEN 7 NO 16
  6. 6 TEN 13 NO 24
  7. 7 TEN 3 NO 17
  8. 8 TEN 17 NO 34
  9. 9 TEN 20 NO 41
  10. 10 TEN 6 NO 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 18% of them, Saints 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+1.7%
Titans by 9–164.8%
Titans by 1–810.6%
Level after regulation1.3%
Saints by 1–824.4%
Saints by 9–1622.8%
Saints by 17+34.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 1, without the luck Titans by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 50 yds made · 76% expected
  • B. Grupe, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Grupe, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • N. Folk, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Grupe, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • N. Folk, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • N. Folk, 29 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 6 for 45 yards, Saints 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:56 False Start on the Titans (Trevon Wesco), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q1 14:05 False Start on the Titans (DeAndre Hopkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.5 pts
Q1 7:33 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 5 yards +5% TEN +1.2 pts
Q1 7:09 False Start on the Titans (Chigoziem Okonkwo), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.6 pts
Q1 2:24 False Start on the Saints (Chris Olave), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 2:12 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +2% NO +1.4 pts
Q3 7:27 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 10 yards +4% TEN +0.8 pts
Q3 6:06 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 15 yards +5% NO +1.9 pts
Q3 0:45 False Start on the Titans (Treylon Burks), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.5 pts
Q4 12:11 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards +3% TEN +1.2 pts
Q4 7:29 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 3:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marcus Maye), 5 yards +2% TEN +0.4 pts
Q4 2:12 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Keith Kirkwood), 10 yards +3% TEN +1.0 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:37 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% TEN NO: Field goal
2 Q3 11:44 The Saints converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +12% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q3 1:28 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +16% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:41 The Saints converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +11% NO NO: Punt
5 Q4 5:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +12% TEN TEN: Field goal
6 Q4 2:20 N. Folk made 29-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +14% NO –
7 Q4 1:55 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% NO NO: End of game
8 Q4 1:39 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% NO NO: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Tre Avery (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dillon Radunz (TEN T), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 63% · Saints 37%

Final margin
Saints by 1
Luck in points
4.1 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Titans 18% · Saints 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Titans · Saints

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