luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 11, 2023

Bills at Jets, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Bills 22–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jets win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 31 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Bills were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:39 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 30 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final (OT)

Buffalo Bills 16
New York Jets 22

September 11, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bills −2.5

Luck index +44 Jets lucky · −44 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 4, Jets win 6.

  1. 1 BUF 31 NYJ 10
  2. 2 BUF 26 NYJ 14
  3. 3 BUF 17 NYJ 10
  4. 4 BUF 20 NYJ 17
  5. 5 BUF 13 NYJ 15
  6. 6 BUF 15 NYJ 19
  7. 7 BUF 7 NYJ 15
  8. 8 BUF 10 NYJ 20
  9. 9 BUF 14 NYJ 30
  10. 10 BUF 6 NYJ 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 44% of them, Jets 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+8.1%
Bills by 9–1613.2%
Bills by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation2.6%
Jets by 1–826.6%
Jets by 9–1617.0%
Jets by 17+12.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 6, without the luck Jets by 3.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • T. Bass, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • T. Bass, 50 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 5 for 40 yards, Jets 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:46 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Terrel Bernard), 5 yards +2% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q1 9:24 False Start on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q1 2:58 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 3:17 Taunting on the Bills (Matt Milano), 15 yards +5% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q4 4:55 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF 0.0 pts
Q4 0:39 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play +30% NYJ +1.3 pts
QOT 10:00 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% NYJ +0.6 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 9:49 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedThe Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% NYJ BUF: Turnover
2 Q4 8:19 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q4 2:50 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +15% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q4 0:39 The game turned hereOffensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 4041 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +30% NYJ NYJ: End of game
5 Q4 0:10 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% NYJ BUF: Field goal
6 Q4 0:06 T. Bass made 50-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 24 of 32 from 45+ before +15% BUF BUF: Opp touchdown
7 QOT 10:00 D. Knox dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 64 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +18% NYJ BUF: Opp touchdown
8 QOT 9:21 Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +26% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Carl Lawson (NYJ DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 27% · Jets 73%

Final margin
Jets by 6
Luck in points
2.6 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Bills 44% · Jets 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Bills · Jets

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