luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Cowboys at Giants, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 40–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q1, 8:14 left): G. Gano had a 45-yard field goal blocked, worth 24 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 40
New York Giants 0

September 10, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index 0 Cowboys about even · 0 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 41 NYG 0
  2. 2 DAL 35 NYG 3
  3. 3 DAL 38 NYG 10
  4. 4 DAL 24 NYG 0
  5. 5 DAL 25 NYG 3
  6. 6 DAL 30 NYG 10
  7. 7 DAL 24 NYG 7
  8. 8 DAL 20 NYG 7
  9. 9 DAL 16 NYG 6
  10. 10 DAL 21 NYG 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 100% of them, Giants 0%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 40.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+87.9%
Cowboys by 9–168.6%
Cowboys by 1–82.9%
Level after regulation0.2%
Giants by 1–80.2%
Giants by 9–160.0%
Giants by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 40, without the luck Cowboys by 36.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 45 yds blocked · 85% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Gano, 36 yds missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 5 for 35 yards, Giants 6 for 72 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Jayron Kearse), 15 yards +5% NYG +1.5 pts
Q1 9:15 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 14:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Tre Hawkins), 37 yards +6% DAL +4.0 pts
Q2 9:25 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Deonte Banks), 5 yards 0% NYG +0.3 pts
Q2 7:23 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards 0% DAL +0.4 pts
Q3 4:41 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Tre Hawkins), 5 yards 0% DAL +0.8 pts
Q3 3:20 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 7:33 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards 0% DAL +1.5 pts
Q4 7:11 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 5 yards 0% NYG +1.2 pts
Q4 4:50 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 1:10 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% DAL +1.1 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Jayron Kearse), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 3118 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +5% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 9:15 False Start on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% DAL DAL: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 8:14 The game turned hereG. Gano had a 45-yard field goal blockedKicks · 85% expected for him, 32 of 38 from 45+ before +24% DAL NYG: Punt
4 Q1 7:54 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +4% DAL NYG: Punt
5 Q1 5:55 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q1 3:24 B. Aubrey made 21-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +7% NYG DAL: Opp touchdown
7 Q1 2:30 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedThe Giants were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +20% DAL NYG: Punt
8 Q2 14:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Tre Hawkins), 37 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +6% DAL DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jarrad Davis (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Smith (DAL T), out · 1.5 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 40
Luck in points
3.7 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 36.3
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 100% · Giants 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Cowboys · Giants

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