luckadjusted

2023 season · final

New York Giants, 2023: game by game

The Giants went 6–11 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.5 wins. Luck added 2.5: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.

Every game

How often the Giants win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Cowboys L 0–40 0% 0
Week 2 @ Cardinals W 31–28 79% +21
Week 3 @ 49ers L 12–30 9% −9
Week 4 vs Seahawks L 3–24 11% −11
Week 5 @ Dolphins L 16–31 0% 0
Week 6 @ Bills L 9–14 3% −3
Week 7 vs Commanders W 14–7 41% +59
Week 8 vs Jets L 10–13 32% −32
Week 9 @ Raiders L 6–30 4% −4
Week 10 @ Cowboys L 17–49 0% 0
Week 11 @ Commanders W 31–19 29% +71
Week 12 vs Patriots W 10–7 38% +62
Week 14 vs Packers W 24–22 27% +73
Week 15 @ Saints L 6–24 2% −2
Week 16 @ Eagles L 25–33 15% −15
Week 17 vs Rams L 25–26 12% −12
Week 18 vs Eagles W 27–10 51% +49

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Giants’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.52−3.5
Fumble bounces+0.34+20.5
Drops+0.28−0.4
Rest−0.04−1.6
Injuries−0.08−4.7
3rd & 4th downs−0.21−7.7
Judgment calls−1.64−11.1