luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Giants at Dolphins, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Giants 31–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:55 left): Return touchdown by the Giants, worth 39 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 16
Miami Dolphins 31

October 8, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −12.5

Luck index 0 Dolphins about even · 0 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Dolphins win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 24 MIA 31
  2. 2 NYG 17 MIA 31
  3. 3 NYG 13 MIA 31
  4. 4 NYG 3 MIA 24
  5. 5 NYG 9 MIA 34
  6. 6 NYG 14 MIA 42
  7. 7 NYG 6 MIA 38
  8. 8 NYG 6 MIA 41
  9. 9 NYG 0 MIA 38
  10. 10 NYG 3 MIA 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 0% of them, Dolphins 100%. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.0%
Giants by 9–160.0%
Giants by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Dolphins by 1–80.4%
Dolphins by 9–161.6%
Dolphins by 17+97.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Giants: the final margin was Dolphins by 15, without the luck Dolphins by 16.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 55 yds missed · 68% expected
  • G. Gano, 49 yds made · 78% expected
  • J. Sanders, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Gano, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Gano, 51 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 6 for 43 yards, Dolphins 6 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:33 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +1% MIA +0.9 pts
Q2 7:57 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +1.2 pts
Q2 7:25 Illegal Substitution on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +2.0 pts
Q2 6:38 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q2 6:19 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.7 pts
Q2 3:41 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.5 pts
Q3 14:15 Taunting on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 15 yards +3% NYG +1.1 pts
Q3 9:17 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 8 yards +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 5:37 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +4% MIA +1.5 pts
Q4 6:25 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 8 yards +1% MIA +0.8 pts
Q4 5:19 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.8 pts
Q4 3:19 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% NYG +3.3 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:44 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% MIA NYG: Missed field goal
2 Q2 15:00 G. Gano missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 34 of 41 from 45+ before +5% MIA NYG: Punt
3 Q2 13:00 The Dolphins fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NYG MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:22 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q2 1:55 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 41% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +39% NYG MIA: Field goal
6 Q3 14:15 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedTaunting on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 3943 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +10% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:51 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 41% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% NYG MIA: Touchdown
8 Q3 5:37 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% MIA MIA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Keion Crossen (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Robert Jones (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jarrad Davis (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Micah McFadden (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Dolphins 100%

Final margin
Dolphins by 15
Luck in points
1.9 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 16.9
Replay with same day's form
Giants 0% · Dolphins 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Giants · Dolphins

More from Week 5 2023