luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Jaguars vs Bills, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars stole one. They beat the Bills 25–20, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 26 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Bills were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:17 left): the Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 25
Buffalo Bills 20

October 8, 2023 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Bills −5.5

Luck index +86 Jaguars very lucky · −86 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 34 BUF 27
  2. 2 JAX 38 BUF 41
  3. 3 JAX 28 BUF 33
  4. 4 JAX 30 BUF 38
  5. 5 JAX 23 BUF 34
  6. 6 JAX 12 BUF 26
  7. 7 JAX 24 BUF 42
  8. 8 JAX 14 BUF 35
  9. 9 JAX 16 BUF 44
  10. 10 JAX 20 BUF 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 14% of them, Bills 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+1.1%
Jaguars by 9–163.6%
Jaguars by 1–87.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Bills by 1–817.8%
Bills by 9–1619.9%
Bills by 17+48.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.3 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 5, without the luck Bills by 10.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Jaguars 8 for 56 yards, Bills 11 for 109 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:50 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 5 yards +3% JAX +1.4 pts
Q1 7:04 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 1 yard 0% JAX +0.1 pts
Q2 14:08 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 11:54 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Dorian Williams), 5 yards 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q2 10:52 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards 0% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 10:21 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 7 yards +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 7:07 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% BUF +2.3 pts
Q3 13:46 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 5 yards +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 13:34 False Start on the Jaguars, 3 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.8 pts
Q3 12:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Jordan Poyer), 15 yards +7% JAX +2.7 pts
Q3 9:44 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bills (Trent Sherfield), 10 yards 0% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 13:29 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +5% JAX +1.2 pts
Q4 11:00 False Start on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 4 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +1.0 pts
Q4 9:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 26 yards +7% JAX +2.6 pts
Q4 7:44 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% JAX +1.5 pts
Q4 6:57 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% JAX +1.7 pts
Q4 5:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Chad Muma), 15 yards +2% BUF +2.2 pts
Q4 4:21 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 9 yards, wiping out the play +6% BUF +2.0 pts
Q4 4:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% JAX +3.1 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:19 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedJ. Cook dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 36 catchable balls before this +9% JAX BUF: Punt
2 Q1 7:04 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 1 yardJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2787 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:17 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% BUF JAX: Punt
4 Q3 8:16 G. Davis dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 86 catchable balls before this +7% JAX BUF: Punt
5 Q3 7:12 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% JAX JAX: Turnover
6 Q4 14:58 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% BUF JAX: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:16 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% JAX BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 4256 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +13% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Gregory Rousseau (BUF DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Devin Lloyd (JAX LB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 18% · Bills 82%

Final margin
Jaguars by 5
Luck in points
15.3 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 14% · Bills 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Jaguars · Bills

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