luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · October 5, 2023–October 9

Week 5 2023: who deserved to win

5 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Jaguars beat the Bills 25–20 in a game they win 14% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 5 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bears 40–20 @ Commanders 33% 22% Lucky
Jaguars 25–20 @ Bills 34% 14% Lucky
Steelers 17–10 vs Ravens 37% 44% Coin flip
Saints 34–0 @ Patriots 43% 88% Deserved
Colts 23–16 vs Titans 43% 50% Coin flip
Jets 31–21 @ Broncos 43% 37% Lucky

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 25–20 @ Bills 14% +86
2 Bears W 40–20 @ Commanders 22% +78
3 Jets W 31–21 @ Broncos 37% +63
4 Falcons W 21–19 vs Texans 41% +59
5 Steelers W 17–10 vs Ravens 44% +56
6 Colts W 23–16 vs Titans 50% +50
7 Bengals W 34–20 @ Cardinals 65% +36
8 Chiefs W 27–20 @ Vikings 78% +22
9 Raiders W 17–13 vs Packers 81% +19
10 Saints W 34–0 @ Patriots 88% +12
11 Eagles W 23–14 @ Rams 92% +8
12 Lions W 42–24 vs Panthers 92% +8
13 49ers W 42–10 vs Cowboys 99% +1
14 Dolphins W 31–16 vs Giants 100% 0
15 Giants L 16–31 @ Dolphins 0% 0
16 Cowboys L 10–42 @ 49ers 1% −1
17 Panthers L 24–42 @ Lions 8% −8
18 Rams L 14–23 vs Eagles 8% −8
19 Patriots L 0–34 vs Saints 12% −12
20 Packers L 13–17 @ Raiders 19% −19
21 Vikings L 20–27 vs Chiefs 22% −22
22 Cardinals L 20–34 vs Bengals 36% −36
23 Titans L 16–23 @ Colts 50% −50
24 Ravens L 10–17 @ Steelers 56% −56
25 Texans L 19–21 @ Falcons 59% −59
26 Broncos L 21–31 vs Jets 63% −63
27 Commanders L 20–40 vs Bears 78% −78
28 Bills L 20–25 vs Jaguars 86% −86