luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · September 28, 2023–October 2

Week 4 2023: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Bears 31–28 in a game they win 34% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 4 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Buccaneers 26–9 @ Saints 38% 87% Deserved
Texans 30–6 vs Steelers 41% 87% Deserved
Titans 27–3 vs Bengals 43% 43% Coin flip

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 31–28 @ Bears 34% +66
2 Titans W 27–3 vs Bengals 43% +57
3 Rams W 29–23 @ Colts 77% +23
4 Jaguars W 23–7 vs Falcons 80% +20
5 Chiefs W 23–20 @ Jets 82% +18
6 Buccaneers W 26–9 @ Saints 87% +13
7 Texans W 30–6 vs Steelers 87% +13
8 Chargers W 24–17 vs Raiders 89% +11
9 Seahawks W 24–3 @ Giants 89% +11
10 Eagles W 34–31 vs Commanders 89% +11
11 Vikings W 21–13 @ Panthers 93% +7
12 49ers W 35–16 vs Cardinals 93% +7
13 Ravens W 28–3 @ Browns 94% +6
14 Lions W 34–20 @ Packers 94% +6
15 Cowboys W 38–3 vs Patriots 98% +2
16 Bills W 48–20 vs Dolphins 98% +2
17 Dolphins L 20–48 @ Bills 2% −2
18 Patriots L 3–38 @ Cowboys 2% −2
19 Packers L 20–34 vs Lions 6% −6
20 Browns L 3–28 vs Ravens 6% −6
21 Cardinals L 16–35 @ 49ers 7% −7
22 Panthers L 13–21 vs Vikings 7% −7
23 Commanders L 31–34 @ Eagles 11% −11
24 Giants L 3–24 vs Seahawks 11% −11
25 Raiders L 17–24 @ Chargers 11% −11
26 Steelers L 6–30 @ Texans 13% −13
27 Saints L 9–26 vs Buccaneers 13% −13
28 Jets L 20–23 vs Chiefs 18% −18
29 Falcons L 7–23 @ Jaguars 20% −20
30 Colts L 23–29 vs Rams 23% −23
31 Bengals L 3–27 @ Titans 57% −57
32 Bears L 28–31 vs Broncos 66% −66