luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Steelers at Texans, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Steelers 30–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Steelers.

An off day for the Steelers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:33 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 6
Houston Texans 30

October 1, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3

Luck index +13 Texans about even · −13 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Texans win 9.

  1. 1 PIT 20 HOU 14
  2. 2 PIT 16 HOU 19
  3. 3 PIT 14 HOU 19
  4. 4 PIT 13 HOU 20
  5. 5 PIT 7 HOU 17
  6. 6 PIT 3 HOU 16
  7. 7 PIT 8 HOU 24
  8. 8 PIT 2 HOU 20
  9. 9 PIT 10 HOU 31
  10. 10 PIT 3 HOU 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Steelers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

35 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained −0.21 +0.06 worse by 0.27
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.04 +0.11 better by 0.06
Texans offenseEPA per play gained +0.04 −0.01 better by 0.05
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed −0.21 +0.15 better by 0.35

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 13% of them, Texans 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.6%
Steelers by 9–162.7%
Steelers by 1–88.8%
Level after regulation2.0%
Texans by 1–819.3%
Texans by 9–1628.0%
Texans by 17+38.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Texans by 24, without the luck Texans by 29.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Boswell, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 23 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 2 for 18 yards, Texans 8 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:25 False Start on the Texans, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.6 pts
Q1 10:13 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% PIT +1.6 pts
Q1 9:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 8 yards +4% HOU +1.2 pts
Q2 4:26 False Start on the Texans (Brevin Jordan), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 1:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 15 yards, wiping out the play +10% PIT +6.2 pts
Q2 1:19 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.3 pts
Q2 1:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Pat Freiermuth), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% HOU +1.9 pts
Q3 8:55 Intentional Grounding on the Texans (C.J. Stroud), 14 yards +1% PIT +1.4 pts
Q3 1:10 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +2% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 8:47 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.7 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:16 The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% PIT PIT: Turnover
2 Q2 15:00 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% HOU HOU: Field goal
3 Q2 7:09 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% PIT HOU: Punt
4 Q2 1:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3406 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% PIT PIT: Punt
5 Q3 8:55 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Texans (C.J. Stroud), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 217 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +4% PIT HOU: Punt
6 Q3 7:17 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q3 2:45 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% PIT PIT: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 1:16 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +6% HOU PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Scott Quessenberry (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Jones (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (HOU P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Diontae Johnson (PIT WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • James Daniels (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 0% · Texans 100%

Final margin
Texans by 24
Luck in points
5.4 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 29.4
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 13% · Texans 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Steelers · Texans

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