luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Patriots at Cowboys, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Patriots 38–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:17 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys, worth 17 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

New England Patriots 3
Dallas Cowboys 38

October 1, 2023 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −6.5

Luck index +2 Cowboys about even · −2 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 0, Cowboys win 10.

  1. 1 NE 13 DAL 16
  2. 2 NE 0 DAL 6
  3. 3 NE 7 DAL 17
  4. 4 NE 13 DAL 26
  5. 5 NE 3 DAL 19
  6. 6 NE 19 DAL 37
  7. 7 NE 13 DAL 34
  8. 8 NE 16 DAL 41
  9. 9 NE 10 DAL 38
  10. 10 NE 3 DAL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 2% of them, Cowboys 98%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+0.0%
Patriots by 9–160.4%
Patriots by 1–81.5%
Level after regulation0.4%
Cowboys by 1–85.5%
Cowboys by 9–1616.4%
Cowboys by 17+75.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.7 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 35, without the luck Cowboys by 20.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Ryland, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Ryland, 52 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 6 for 50 yards, Cowboys 5 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:44 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +1.1 pts
Q2 14:19 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 11:54 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 3:58 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +1% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 0:03 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.2 pts
Q2 0:03 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.4 pts
Q3 6:19 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards 0% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 5:34 Face Mask on the Patriots (Christian Barmore), 15 yards 0% DAL +2.2 pts
Q3 0:50 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 7 yards 0% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 10:59 False Start on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 4:03 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards 0% NE +1.0 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:41 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 11:37 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +7% NE DAL: Field goal
3 Q1 8:49 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +14% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q1 6:44 C. Ryland made 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for himDelay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% DAL NE: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 13:49 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +4% DAL NE: Opp touchdown
6 Q2 12:50 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% NE DAL: Punt
7 Q2 11:17 The Patriots fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +17% DAL NE: Punt
8 Q2 1:07 The Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +9% DAL NE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Nahshon Wright (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Thornton (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Strange (NE G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 35
Luck in points
14.7 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 20.3
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 2% · Cowboys 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Patriots · Cowboys

More from Week 4 2023