luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Raiders at Chargers, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Raiders 24–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:47 left): the Raiders converted 4th & 10, worth 15 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 17
Los Angeles Chargers 24

October 1, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −7

Luck index +11 Chargers about even · −11 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Chargers win 9.

  1. 1 LV 20 LAC 12
  2. 2 LV 22 LAC 24
  3. 3 LV 23 LAC 28
  4. 4 LV 19 LAC 27
  5. 5 LV 10 LAC 20
  6. 6 LV 7 LAC 20
  7. 7 LV 7 LAC 23
  8. 8 LV 17 LAC 36
  9. 9 LV 9 LAC 31
  10. 10 LV 3 LAC 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 11% of them, Chargers 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+1.0%
Raiders by 9–162.4%
Raiders by 1–86.4%
Level after regulation1.8%
Chargers by 1–817.5%
Chargers by 9–1622.8%
Chargers by 17+48.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.8 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 7, without the luck Raiders by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 9 for 80 yards, Chargers 4 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:13 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (David Long), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% LAC +3.8 pts
Q1 2:50 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.7 pts
Q1 2:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Michael Davis), 9 yards +4% LV +1.2 pts
Q2 9:01 Disqualification on the Raiders (Jerry Tillery), 15 yards +4% LAC +1.1 pts
Q2 5:15 Illegal Use of Hands on the Raiders (Tyree Wilson), 5 yards +1% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 0:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% LAC +4.3 pts
Q3 13:32 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +1.1 pts
Q3 6:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 10 yards +2% LV +1.4 pts
Q3 4:51 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Stone Smartt), 10 yards 0% LV +1.0 pts
Q3 2:11 Illegal Blindside Block on the Raiders (Robert Spillane), 15 yards +1% LAC +1.3 pts
Q4 12:33 Illegal Crackback on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 15 yards +3% LAC +1.5 pts
Q4 8:28 Illegal Contact on the Chargers, 5 yards 0% LV +0.3 pts
Q4 1:11 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Marcus Peters), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.6 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:13 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (David Long), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1719 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:44 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:19 The Chargers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% LAC LAC: Field goal
4 Q2 9:48 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% LAC LV: Turnover
5 Q2 0:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2881 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +10% LAC LAC: End of half
6 Q4 3:34 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +12% LV LAC: End of game
7 Q4 2:47 The Raiders converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +15% LV LV: Turnover
8 Q4 2:39 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (LV QB), out, replaced by a.o'connell · 7.7 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 44% · Chargers 56%

Final margin
Chargers by 7
Luck in points
10.8 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 11% · Chargers 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Raiders · Chargers

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