luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Falcons vs Jaguars, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Falcons 23–7 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:42 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 7
Jacksonville Jaguars 23

October 1, 2023 · Wembley Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3.5

Luck index +20 Jaguars about even · −20 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Jaguars win 8.

  1. 1 ATL 27 JAX 14
  2. 2 ATL 24 JAX 20
  3. 3 ATL 7 JAX 10
  4. 4 ATL 16 JAX 20
  5. 5 ATL 13 JAX 20
  6. 6 ATL 10 JAX 20
  7. 7 ATL 7 JAX 20
  8. 8 ATL 14 JAX 30
  9. 9 ATL 23 JAX 45
  10. 10 ATL 10 JAX 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 20% of them, Jaguars 80%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+1.0%
Falcons by 9–165.7%
Falcons by 1–812.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
Jaguars by 1–824.0%
Jaguars by 9–1623.4%
Jaguars by 17+32.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 16, without the luck Jaguars by 9.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 56 yds made · 62% expected
  • B. McManus, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • B. McManus, 38 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 3 for 50 yards, Jaguars 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:29 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q1 0:42 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 10 yards +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q2 2:20 False Start on the Falcons (Bijan Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.5 pts
Q3 3:37 False Start on the Falcons (Jonnu Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q3 1:42 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +1% ATL +1.0 pts
Q4 4:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 40 yards +1% JAX +3.3 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:40 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedE. Engram dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 116 catchable balls before this +9% ATL JAX: Punt
2 Q1 7:01 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +6% ATL JAX: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:54 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:12 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% JAX ATL: Punt
5 Q2 14:56 B. McManus made 56-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 48 of 68 from 45+ before +5% JAX JAX: Punt
6 Q2 11:57 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% JAX JAX: Punt
7 Q2 4:42 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +17% JAX ATL: Turnover
8 Q4 10:41 B. McManus made 43-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +5% JAX JAX: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Devin Lloyd (JAX LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Matt Hennessy (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 9% · Jaguars 91%

Final margin
Jaguars by 16
Luck in points
6.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 20% · Jaguars 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Falcons · Jaguars

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