luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 2, 2023

Seahawks at Giants, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Giants 24–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:19 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks, worth 25 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 24
New York Giants 3

October 2, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −2.5

Luck index +11 Seahawks about even · −11 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 41 NYG 10
  2. 2 SEA 37 NYG 14
  3. 3 SEA 34 NYG 14
  4. 4 SEA 30 NYG 14
  5. 5 SEA 19 NYG 6
  6. 6 SEA 16 NYG 6
  7. 7 SEA 23 NYG 14
  8. 8 SEA 10 NYG 5
  9. 9 SEA 19 NYG 17
  10. 10 SEA 16 NYG 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 89% of them, Giants 11%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+49.2%
Seahawks by 9–1621.7%
Seahawks by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation1.5%
Giants by 1–86.8%
Giants by 9–162.1%
Giants by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.0 points to the Giants: the final margin was Seahawks by 21, without the luck Seahawks by 37. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Myers, 53 yds missed · 66% expected
  • J. Myers, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 8 for 74 yards, Giants 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:35 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +4% NYG +1.7 pts
Q1 4:02 False Start on the Seahawks, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q1 3:38 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards +3% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Gary Brightwell), 10 yards +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 12:01 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Giants (Carter Coughlin), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q2 11:19 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Colby Parkinson), 10 yards +5% NYG +1.3 pts
Q2 0:38 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Cam Brown), 5 yards +3% SEA +0.3 pts
Q3 14:20 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% NYG +1.4 pts
Q3 13:09 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 15 yards +2% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 7:37 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards 0% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 6:22 Face Mask on the Seahawks (Mario Edwards), 15 yards +3% NYG +1.4 pts
Q4 13:32 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% SEA +2.0 pts
Q4 11:28 Illegal Shift on the Giants (Isaiah Simmons), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.4 pts
Q4 7:00 False Start on the Seahawks (Colby Parkinson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.6 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:29 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 7:27 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG NYG: Punt
3 Q1 0:57 The Giants fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% SEA NYG: Punt
4 Q2 1:52 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q3 9:07 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedZ. Charbonnet dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 3 catchable balls before this +11% NYG SEA: Missed field goal
6 Q3 6:36 J. Myers missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 26 of 36 from 45+ before +9% NYG SEA: Opp touchdown
7 Q3 2:46 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +9% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
8 Q3 1:19 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +25% SEA NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jarrad Davis (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Charles Cross (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Coby Bryant (SEA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tre Brown (SEA CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Seahawks by 21
Luck in points
16.0 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 37.0
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 89% · Giants 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Seahawks · Giants

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