luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Commanders at Eagles, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Commanders 34–31, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: drops alone were worth 35 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 4:04 left): J. Elliott made 54-yard field goal, worth 33 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final (OT)

Washington Commanders 31
Philadelphia Eagles 34

October 1, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −9.5

Luck index +11 Eagles about even · −11 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 WAS 27 PHI 20
  2. 2 WAS 14 PHI 16
  3. 3 WAS 10 PHI 14
  4. 4 WAS 37 PHI 44
  5. 5 WAS 17 PHI 27
  6. 6 WAS 17 PHI 30
  7. 7 WAS 10 PHI 27
  8. 8 WAS 10 PHI 30
  9. 9 WAS 3 PHI 26
  10. 10 WAS 0 PHI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 11% of them, Eagles 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+0.6%
Commanders by 9–162.1%
Commanders by 1–86.9%
Level after regulation1.6%
Eagles by 1–817.8%
Eagles by 9–1622.4%
Eagles by 17+48.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.8 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Eagles by 3, without the luck Eagles by 12.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Elliott, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Elliott, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • J. Elliott, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Elliott, 54 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 7 for 41 yards, Eagles 11 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:58 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Nicholas Morrow), 5 yards +3% WAS +1.0 pts
Q1 8:58 False Start on the Commanders (Logan Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% PHI +0.5 pts
Q1 6:09 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q1 3:56 Face Mask on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 15 yards +6% PHI +1.7 pts
Q2 13:40 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Nolan Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 13:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Terrell Edmunds), 2 yards +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 10:36 Offensive Offside on the Eagles, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +1.0 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (James Bradberry), 9 yards +3% WAS +1.9 pts
Q3 10:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 5 yards +2% WAS +1.0 pts
Q3 8:45 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Jamin Davis), 5 yards +3% PHI +1.1 pts
Q3 7:24 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Montez Sweat), 1 yard 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q3 1:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Kendall Fuller), 5 yards +4% PHI +1.6 pts
Q4 10:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Terrell Edmunds), 15 yards +4% WAS +2.4 pts
Q4 9:41 Illegal Formation on the Commanders (Dyami Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% PHI +1.2 pts
Q4 6:49 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.5 pts
Q4 3:39 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.2 pts
Q4 1:49 Taunting on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 15 yards +4% WAS +1.4 pts
QOT 4:50 Intentional Grounding on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 11 yards +9% WAS +1.4 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:22 The Commanders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q4 6:49 A. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 151 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +15% WAS PHI: Punt
3 Q4 2:40 O. Zaccheaus dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 48 catchable balls before this +19% WAS PHI: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:34 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +19% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 QOT 7:39 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +15% WAS PHI: Field goal
6 QOT 7:13 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +20% PHI PHI: Field goal
7 QOT 4:44 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +18% PHI PHI: Field goal
8 QOT 4:04 J. Elliott made 54-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 23 of 34 from 45+ before +33% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Evans (PHI FS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 6% · Eagles 94%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
9.8 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 12.8
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 11% · Eagles 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Commanders · Eagles

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