luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Philadelphia Eagles, 2023: game by game

The Eagles went 11–6 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.3 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–3.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.

Every game

How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Patriots W 25–20 67% +33
Week 2 vs Vikings W 34–28 81% +19
Week 3 @ Buccaneers W 25–11 95% +5
Week 4 vs Commanders W 34–31 89% +11
Week 5 @ Rams W 23–14 92% +8
Week 6 @ Jets L 14–20 82% −82
Week 7 vs Dolphins W 31–17 48% +52
Week 8 @ Commanders W 38–31 41% +59
Week 9 vs Cowboys W 28–23 54% +46
Week 11 @ Chiefs W 21–17 42% +58
Week 12 vs Bills W 37–34 41% +59
Week 13 vs 49ers L 19–42 3% −3
Week 14 @ Cowboys L 13–33 26% −26
Week 15 @ Seahawks L 17–20 82% −82
Week 16 vs Giants W 33–25 85% +15
Week 17 vs Cardinals L 31–35 47% −47
Week 18 @ Giants L 10–27 49% −49
Wild Card @ Buccaneers L 9–32 18% −18

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Drops+1.31+31.1
Kicks+0.93+7.0
Injuries+0.05+1.3
3rd & 4th downs−0.03−1.1
Rest−0.04−1.4
Fumble bounces−0.23−9.4
Judgment calls−0.24+3.1