luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Cowboys at Eagles, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 28–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:05 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 26, worth 50 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 23
Philadelphia Eagles 28

November 5, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −3.5

Luck index +46 Eagles lucky · −46 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 5, Eagles win 5.

  1. 1 DAL 37 PHI 19
  2. 2 DAL 37 PHI 24
  3. 3 DAL 29 PHI 21
  4. 4 DAL 20 PHI 14
  5. 5 DAL 15 PHI 13
  6. 6 DAL 7 PHI 9
  7. 7 DAL 23 PHI 27
  8. 8 DAL 19 PHI 28
  9. 9 DAL 10 PHI 23
  10. 10 DAL 13 PHI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 46% of them, Eagles 54%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+8.8%
Cowboys by 9–1613.4%
Cowboys by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation5.6%
Eagles by 1–824.1%
Eagles by 9–1614.5%
Eagles by 17+10.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.1 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 5, without the luck Cowboys by 5.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Cowboys 10 for 83 yards, Eagles 10 for 98 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:40 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q1 5:46 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL 0.0 pts
Q1 5:46 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL 0.0 pts
Q1 0:17 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Sean McKeon), 10 yards +3% PHI +1.2 pts
Q2 12:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Nakobe Dean), 10 yards +3% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 6:44 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jayron Kearse), 6 yards +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 0:44 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DAL +0.3 pts
Q3 15:00 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Rashaan Evans), 15 yards +4% PHI +1.0 pts
Q3 9:28 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Luke Schoonmaker), 10 yards +4% PHI +1.0 pts
Q3 5:29 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 3:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Stephon Gilmore), 17 yards +3% PHI +1.3 pts
Q3 2:31 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q4 11:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Kevin Byard), 7 yards +3% DAL +1.1 pts
Q4 8:05 Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Eli Ricks), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% PHI +0.4 pts
Q4 6:34 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% PHI +1.6 pts
Q4 0:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (James Bradberry), 36 yards +13% DAL +1.3 pts
Q4 0:40 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Haason Reddick), 15 yards +26% DAL +2.1 pts
Q4 0:27 Encroachment on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DAL +1.1 pts
Q4 0:27 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% PHI +1.0 pts
Q4 0:05 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% PHI +0.4 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:28 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:23 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +11% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:25 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedM. Gallup dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 87 catchable balls before this +10% PHI DAL: Field goal
4 Q4 3:20 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 1:22 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +18% PHI DAL: Turnover
6 Q4 0:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (James Bradberry), 36 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 5105 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +13% DAL DAL: Turnover
7 Q4 0:40 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Haason Reddick), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3847 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +26% DAL DAL: Turnover
8 Q4 0:05 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 263rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +50% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Evans (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 76% · Eagles 24%

Final margin
Eagles by 5
Luck in points
10.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 46% · Eagles 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Cowboys · Eagles

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