luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Seahawks at Ravens, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Seahawks 37–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:11 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 10 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 3
Baltimore Ravens 37

November 5, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6

Luck index +2 Ravens about even · −2 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 SEA 20 BAL 24
  2. 2 SEA 14 BAL 23
  3. 3 SEA 28 BAL 40
  4. 4 SEA 21 BAL 36
  5. 5 SEA 21 BAL 40
  6. 6 SEA 13 BAL 34
  7. 7 SEA 10 BAL 35
  8. 8 SEA 16 BAL 45
  9. 9 SEA 17 BAL 51
  10. 10 SEA 6 BAL 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 2% of them, Ravens 98%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+0.0%
Seahawks by 9–160.4%
Seahawks by 1–81.4%
Level after regulation0.2%
Ravens by 1–84.5%
Ravens by 9–1612.2%
Ravens by 17+81.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.6 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 34, without the luck Ravens by 23.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Tucker, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Tucker, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Tucker, 31 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 5 for 29 yards, Ravens 3 for 11 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:04 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q1 7:29 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.2 pts
Q1 4:20 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.6 pts
Q2 2:54 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 3 yards +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q3 12:01 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 9:27 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Dre'Mont Jones), 6 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +1.7 pts
Q3 3:08 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% BAL +2.6 pts
Q4 14:24 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.4 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedJ. Smith-Njigba dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 26 catchable balls before this +9% BAL SEA: Punt
2 Q1 11:48 O. Beckham dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 14 catchable balls before this +4% SEA BAL: Punt
3 Q1 8:58 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% BAL SEA: Punt
4 Q1 5:11 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +4% SEA SEA: Punt
5 Q1 1:20 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:11 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% BAL SEA: Punt
7 Q2 10:43 The Ravens fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% SEA BAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:38 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedThe Seahawks fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL SEA: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Morgan Moses (BAL T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Coby Bryant (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Uchenna Nwosu (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 34
Luck in points
10.6 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 23.4
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 2% · Ravens 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Seahawks · Ravens

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