luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Cardinals at Browns, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Cardinals 27–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:46 left): the Browns were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 14 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 0
Cleveland Browns 27

November 5, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −13

Luck index +1 Browns about even · −1 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 0, Browns win 10.

  1. 1 ARI 22 CLE 25
  2. 2 ARI 10 CLE 16
  3. 3 ARI 6 CLE 17
  4. 4 ARI 3 CLE 17
  5. 5 ARI 6 CLE 23
  6. 6 ARI 9 CLE 29
  7. 7 ARI 2 CLE 25
  8. 8 ARI 6 CLE 31
  9. 9 ARI 3 CLE 32
  10. 10 ARI 0 CLE 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 1% of them, Browns 99%. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.0%
Cardinals by 9–160.1%
Cardinals by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.2%
Browns by 1–82.9%
Browns by 9–1610.9%
Browns by 17+85.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 27, without the luck Browns by 24.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 4 for 40 yards, Browns 6 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:59 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% ARI +2.0 pts
Q2 13:38 Face Mask on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 15 yards +5% ARI +1.6 pts
Q2 5:36 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marquise Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% CLE +3.9 pts
Q2 2:51 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +3% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Mike Ford), 10 yards +2% ARI +0.7 pts
Q2 1:18 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Cameron Thomas), 15 yards +3% CLE +1.5 pts
Q3 12:39 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Kahlef Hailassie), 10 yards +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 8:07 Taunting on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 15 yards +2% ARI +1.4 pts
Q3 8:03 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Maurice Hurst Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.5 pts
Q3 5:50 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.4 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:35 The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +4% CLE CLE: Punt
2 Q1 9:59 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% ARI ARI: Punt
3 Q1 7:16 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedT. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 10 catchable balls before this +7% CLE ARI: Punt
4 Q1 3:46 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedJ. Akins dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 44 catchable balls before this +14% ARI CLE: Field goal
5 Q2 13:38 Face Mask on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1972 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +5% ARI ARI: Turnover
6 Q2 13:16 The Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CLE ARI: Punt
7 Q2 11:28 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q2 5:36 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marquise Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 3757 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% CLE CLE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Michael Wilson (ARI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Kei'Trel Clark (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 0% · Browns 100%

Final margin
Browns by 27
Luck in points
2.1 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 24.9
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 1% · Browns 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Cardinals · Browns

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