luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Cleveland Browns, 2023: game by game

The Browns went 11–6 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.2 wins. Luck added 2.8: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–2.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.

Every game

How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Bengals W 24–3 88% +12
Week 2 @ Steelers L 22–26 51% −51
Week 3 vs Titans W 27–3 96% +4
Week 4 vs Ravens L 3–28 6% −6
Week 6 vs 49ers W 19–17 18% +82
Week 7 @ Colts W 39–38 11% +89
Week 8 @ Seahawks L 20–24 57% −57
Week 9 vs Cardinals W 27–0 99% +1
Week 10 @ Ravens W 33–31 14% +86
Week 11 vs Steelers W 13–10 46% +54
Week 12 @ Broncos L 12–29 21% −21
Week 13 @ Rams L 19–36 32% −32
Week 14 vs Jaguars W 31–27 59% +41
Week 15 vs Bears W 20–17 88% +12
Week 16 @ Texans W 36–22 95% +5
Week 17 vs Jets W 37–20 28% +72
Week 18 @ Bengals L 14–31 7% −7
Wild Card @ Texans L 14–45 9% −9

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+1.70+24.5
Injuries+0.32+11.6
Judgment calls+0.14−1.6
Rest+0.04+2.0
Fumble bounces−0.14−4.7
Drops−0.23−6.8