luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 18, 2023

Browns at Steelers, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Browns 26–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 32 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 7:06 left): Return touchdown by the Steelers, worth 63 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Cleveland Browns 22
Pittsburgh Steelers 26

September 18, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +51 Steelers lucky · −51 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Steelers win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 29 PIT 6
  2. 2 CLE 30 PIT 15
  3. 3 CLE 18 PIT 7
  4. 4 CLE 19 PIT 14
  5. 5 CLE 22 PIT 20
  6. 6 CLE 21 PIT 23
  7. 7 CLE 31 PIT 37
  8. 8 CLE 13 PIT 24
  9. 9 CLE 14 PIT 31
  10. 10 CLE 20 PIT 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 51% of them, Steelers 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+13.3%
Browns by 9–1615.5%
Browns by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation4.7%
Steelers by 1–818.9%
Steelers by 9–1614.2%
Steelers by 17+14.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 4, without the luck Browns by 12.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
  • C. Boswell, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 55 yds made · 60% expected
  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 8 for 81 yards, Steelers 5 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:02 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% PIT +2.2 pts
Q1 5:23 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.4 pts
Q1 0:22 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.6 pts
Q2 14:02 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Patrick Peterson), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q2 6:05 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% PIT 0.0 pts
Q2 5:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Mike Ford), 15 yards +2% PIT +1.1 pts
Q2 2:52 Illegal Formation on the Steelers (Connor Heyward), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q2 2:46 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% PIT +1.2 pts
Q2 1:49 Face Mask on the Steelers (Chandon Sullivan), 15 yards +3% CLE +1.7 pts
Q3 5:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Deshaun Watson), 15 yards +5% PIT +2.1 pts
Q4 11:28 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +4% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 11:19 Face Mask on the Browns (Deshaun Watson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% PIT +2.7 pts
Q4 2:55 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.4 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +27% PIT CLE: Field goal
2 Q1 8:12 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe Steelers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% CLE PIT: Punt
3 Q4 10:46 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 263rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedThe Browns fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% PIT CLE: Opp touchdown
4 Q4 8:18 The Browns converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +15% CLE CLE: Opp touchdown
5 Q4 7:06 The game turned hereThe Browns fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +63% PIT CLE: Punt
6 Q4 3:05 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +10% CLE PIT: Punt
7 Q4 1:53 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% PIT CLE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:05 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Diontae Johnson (PIT WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 95% · Steelers 5%

Final margin
Steelers by 4
Luck in points
16.4 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 12.4
Replay with same day's form
Browns 51% · Steelers 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Browns · Steelers

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