luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 18, 2023

Saints at Panthers, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 20–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:52 left): the Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 24 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 20
Carolina Panthers 17

September 18, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Saints −3

Luck index +10 Saints about even · −10 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 NO 33 CAR 3
  2. 2 NO 31 CAR 9
  3. 3 NO 31 CAR 12
  4. 4 NO 43 CAR 27
  5. 5 NO 20 CAR 7
  6. 6 NO 33 CAR 23
  7. 7 NO 24 CAR 16
  8. 8 NO 20 CAR 14
  9. 9 NO 26 CAR 23
  10. 10 NO 13 CAR 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 90% of them, Panthers 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+48.2%
Saints by 9–1624.3%
Saints by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation1.8%
Panthers by 1–86.1%
Panthers by 9–162.2%
Panthers by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Saints by 3, without the luck Saints by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • B. Grupe, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Grupe, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 54 yds made · 67% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 3 for 32 yards, Panthers 6 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:08 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.7 pts
Q1 6:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 6 yards +5% NO +1.6 pts
Q1 0:36 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Hayden Hurst), 10 yards +1% NO +1.2 pts
Q2 11:51 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards +2% NO +0.5 pts
Q3 13:43 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards, wiping out the play +15% CAR +3.1 pts
Q3 9:26 False Start on the Panthers, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +1.9 pts
Q3 8:35 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Jimmy Graham), 10 yards +4% CAR +1.4 pts
Q3 8:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.2 pts
Q4 7:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 17 yards +9% CAR +1.2 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:55 The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% NO NO: Field goal
2 Q2 3:16 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +22% CAR NO: Punt
3 Q2 1:52 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% NO CAR: End of half
4 Q3 13:43 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1877 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +15% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q3 9:15 E. Pineiro made 54-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 16 of 18 from 45+ before +7% CAR CAR: Punt
6 Q3 7:22 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +16% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1877 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
8 Q4 6:20 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +12% NO CAR: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 84% · Panthers 16%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
2.2 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Saints 90% · Panthers 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Saints · Panthers

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