luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Colts at Texans, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Texans 31–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:23 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 16 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 31
Houston Texans 20

September 17, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1

Luck index +23 Colts about even · −23 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 IND 28 HOU 0
  2. 2 IND 30 HOU 9
  3. 3 IND 29 HOU 13
  4. 4 IND 33 HOU 21
  5. 5 IND 30 HOU 21
  6. 6 IND 16 HOU 10
  7. 7 IND 13 HOU 9
  8. 8 IND 16 HOU 13
  9. 9 IND 13 HOU 16
  10. 10 IND 9 HOU 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 77% of them, Texans 23%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+25.5%
Colts by 9–1622.3%
Colts by 1–826.2%
Level after regulation3.7%
Texans by 1–813.0%
Texans by 9–166.5%
Texans by 17+2.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 11, without the luck Colts by 5.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 8 for 42 yards, Texans 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Tyquan Lewis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q1 0:08 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 14:57 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% HOU +2.3 pts
Q2 11:39 False Start on the Colts (Kylen Granson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 8:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.2 pts
Q2 7:06 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% IND +3.4 pts
Q3 11:38 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% HOU +4.5 pts
Q3 5:50 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Dayo Odeyingbo), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% IND +0.2 pts
Q3 0:50 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Dayo Odeyingbo), 2 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.3 pts
Q4 14:17 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% IND +3.4 pts
Q4 2:44 False Start on the Texans (Kurt Hinish), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.4 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:47 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:23 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Texans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% IND HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:04 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:19 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:57 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q2 7:06 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +10% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:41 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
8 Q3 11:38 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +6% HOU HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Scott Quessenberry (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (HOU P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jelani Woods (IND TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 88% · Texans 12%

Final margin
Colts by 11
Luck in points
5.2 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Colts 77% · Texans 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Colts · Texans

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