luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Chargers at Titans, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Chargers 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:21 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 16 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Chargers 24
Tennessee Titans 27

September 17, 2023 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +40 Titans lucky · −40 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 4, Titans win 6.

  1. 1 LAC 26 TEN 7
  2. 2 LAC 35 TEN 23
  3. 3 LAC 33 TEN 27
  4. 4 LAC 30 TEN 27
  5. 5 LAC 40 TEN 41
  6. 6 LAC 20 TEN 23
  7. 7 LAC 16 TEN 23
  8. 8 LAC 17 TEN 27
  9. 9 LAC 20 TEN 34
  10. 10 LAC 12 TEN 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 40% of them, Titans 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+6.8%
Chargers by 9–1613.3%
Chargers by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation2.3%
Titans by 1–826.7%
Titans by 9–1616.6%
Titans by 17+15.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 3, without the luck Chargers by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 43 yards, Titans 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:31 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Tre Avery), 10 yards +3% LAC +0.8 pts
Q1 3:02 False Start on the Titans (Trevon Wesco), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.5 pts
Q2 10:13 Horse Collar Tackle on the Titans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 14 yards +4% LAC +1.9 pts
Q2 8:24 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 1 yard 0% LAC +0.1 pts
Q3 11:31 False Start on the Titans (Josh Whyle), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LAC +0.9 pts
Q3 11:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yards +13% TEN +2.3 pts
Q3 10:19 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Sebastian Joseph-Day), 12 yards +5% TEN +1.6 pts
Q3 1:59 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 9 yards +1% TEN +1.5 pts
Q4 13:15 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.5 pts
Q4 3:55 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Kenneth Murray), 7 yards +9% TEN +1.0 pts
Q4 1:36 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Arden Key), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.3 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:52 The Chargers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +12% LAC LAC: Field goal
2 Q2 8:24 The Chargers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 1 yardJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3516 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +14% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q3 11:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2252 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +13% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:25 The Titans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +14% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:21 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +16% TEN LAC: Field goal
6 Q4 0:03 C. Dicker made 33-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +14% LAC LAC: Punt
7 QOT 10:00 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% LAC LAC: Punt
8 QOT 5:06 N. Folk made 41-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +12% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 59% · Titans 41%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
3.2 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 40% · Titans 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Chargers · Titans

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