luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Tennessee Titans, 2023: game by game

The Titans went 6–11 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–7.

Every game

How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Saints L 15–16 18% −18
Week 2 vs Chargers W 27–24 60% +40
Week 3 @ Browns L 3–27 4% −4
Week 4 vs Bengals W 27–3 43% +57
Week 5 @ Colts L 16–23 50% −50
Week 6 vs Ravens L 16–24 37% −37
Week 8 vs Falcons W 28–23 48% +52
Week 9 @ Steelers L 16–20 33% −33
Week 10 @ Buccaneers L 6–20 10% −10
Week 11 @ Jaguars L 14–34 26% −26
Week 12 vs Panthers W 17–10 89% +11
Week 13 vs Colts L 28–31 22% −22
Week 14 @ Dolphins W 28–27 5% +95
Week 15 vs Texans L 16–19 16% −16
Week 16 vs Seahawks L 17–20 54% −54
Week 17 @ Texans L 3–26 16% −16
Week 18 vs Jaguars W 28–20 30% +70

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Rest+0.07+2.4
Injuries−0.12−3.6
Fumble bounces−0.13−7.9
3rd & 4th downs−0.13−2.4
Drops−0.43−5.1
Kicks−0.79−5.0