luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Seahawks at Titans, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Titans 20–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:14 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Tre Avery), 22 yards, worth 21 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 20
Tennessee Titans 17

December 24, 2023 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −3

Luck index +54 Seahawks lucky · −54 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 5, Titans win 5.

  1. 1 SEA 20 TEN 3
  2. 2 SEA 14 TEN 3
  3. 3 SEA 14 TEN 7
  4. 4 SEA 13 TEN 10
  5. 5 SEA 9 TEN 8
  6. 6 SEA 7 TEN 9
  7. 7 SEA 6 TEN 10
  8. 8 SEA 10 TEN 17
  9. 9 SEA 10 TEN 21
  10. 10 SEA 0 TEN 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 46% of them, Titans 54%, counting the 9% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+5.9%
Seahawks by 9–1613.6%
Seahawks by 1–824.2%
Level after regulation8.8%
Titans by 1–825.1%
Titans by 9–1614.9%
Titans by 17+7.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 3, without the luck Titans by 3.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Myers, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 47 yards, Titans 10 for 97 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:15 False Start on the Titans (DeAndre Hopkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q1 9:20 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Arden Key), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN 0.0 pts
Q1 2:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Quandre Diggs), 15 yards 0% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 6:20 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 2:09 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Mike Brown), 15 yards +5% SEA +1.9 pts
Q2 0:54 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Garret Wallow), 15 yards +3% SEA +1.5 pts
Q3 7:44 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q3 3:50 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (DeeJay Dallas), 4 yards +2% TEN +0.4 pts
Q3 2:56 False Start on the Seahawks (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.4 pts
Q3 1:58 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 5 yards +3% SEA +1.0 pts
Q3 1:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jaleel Johnson), 15 yards +3% SEA +2.2 pts
Q4 5:00 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +0.5 pts
Q4 4:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 15 yards +15% TEN +1.7 pts
Q4 3:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Artie Burns), 3 yards +3% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 1:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Tre Avery), 22 yards +21% SEA +1.9 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:03 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% SEA SEA: Punt
2 Q1 7:07 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q3 5:56 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q4 6:27 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 888 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +15% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:00 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:14 The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Tre Avery), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 912 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +21% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:00 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +16% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TEN CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Daniel Brunskill (TEN C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ryan Stonehouse (TEN P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • K'Von Wallace (TEN FS), out · 0.1 pts
  • Devon Witherspoon (SEA CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Phil Haynes (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 39% · Titans 61%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
6.2 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 46% · Titans 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Seahawks · Titans

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