luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · December 21, 2023–December 25

Week 16 2023: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Jets beat the Commanders 30–28 in a game they win 9% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 16 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 20–14 @ Chiefs 21% 73% Deserved
Patriots 26–23 @ Broncos 30% 50% Coin flip
Ravens 33–19 @ 49ers 32% 81% Deserved
Steelers 34–11 vs Bengals 41% 69% Deserved
Buccaneers 30–12 vs Jaguars 44% 81% Deserved

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jets W 30–28 vs Commanders 9% +91
2 Seahawks W 20–17 @ Titans 46% +54
3 Patriots W 26–23 @ Broncos 50% +50
4 Rams W 30–22 vs Saints 64% +36
5 Steelers W 34–11 vs Bengals 69% +31
6 Dolphins W 22–20 vs Cowboys 70% +30
7 Raiders W 20–14 @ Chiefs 73% +27
8 Lions W 30–24 @ Vikings 77% +23
9 Packers W 33–30 @ Panthers 78% +22
10 Bears W 27–16 vs Cardinals 78% +22
11 Ravens W 33–19 @ 49ers 81% +19
12 Buccaneers W 30–12 vs Jaguars 81% +19
13 Bills W 24–22 @ Chargers 84% +16
14 Eagles W 33–25 vs Giants 85% +15
15 Falcons W 29–10 vs Colts 92% +8
16 Browns W 36–22 @ Texans 95% +5
17 Texans L 22–36 vs Browns 5% −5
18 Colts L 10–29 @ Falcons 8% −8
19 Giants L 25–33 @ Eagles 15% −15
20 Chargers L 22–24 vs Bills 16% −16
21 Jaguars L 12–30 @ Buccaneers 19% −19
22 49ers L 19–33 vs Ravens 19% −19
23 Cardinals L 16–27 @ Bears 22% −22
24 Panthers L 30–33 vs Packers 22% −22
25 Vikings L 24–30 vs Lions 23% −23
26 Chiefs L 14–20 vs Raiders 27% −27
27 Cowboys L 20–22 @ Dolphins 30% −30
28 Bengals L 11–34 @ Steelers 31% −31
29 Saints L 22–30 @ Rams 36% −36
30 Broncos L 23–26 vs Patriots 50% −50
31 Titans L 17–20 vs Seahawks 54% −54
32 Commanders L 28–30 @ Jets 91% −91