luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Lions at Vikings, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Vikings 30–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:58 left): the Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 14 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 30
Minnesota Vikings 24

December 24, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +23 Lions about even · −23 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 8, Vikings win 2.

  1. 1 DET 34 MIN 7
  2. 2 DET 31 MIN 10
  3. 3 DET 31 MIN 14
  4. 4 DET 26 MIN 13
  5. 5 DET 31 MIN 20
  6. 6 DET 23 MIN 16
  7. 7 DET 24 MIN 20
  8. 8 DET 19 MIN 17
  9. 9 DET 23 MIN 27
  10. 10 DET 9 MIN 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 77% of them, Vikings 23%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+30.4%
Lions by 9–1620.1%
Lions by 1–824.8%
Level after regulation3.1%
Vikings by 1–812.5%
Vikings by 9–165.9%
Vikings by 17+3.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 6, without the luck Lions by 4.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Joseph, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 9 for 52 yards, Vikings 8 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:32 Offensive Offside on the Lions (Kalif Raymond), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% MIN +3.8 pts
Q1 3:08 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Brian Branch), 2 yards +5% MIN +1.2 pts
Q2 9:38 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.3 pts
Q2 9:17 Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Patrick Jones II), 15 yards +5% DET +1.8 pts
Q2 5:05 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Troy Dye), 10 yards +2% DET +1.4 pts
Q2 4:59 Illegal Contact on the Lions (Kindle Vildor), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 4:00 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.3 pts
Q2 3:41 False Start on the Vikings, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.2 pts
Q2 2:01 Encroachment on the Vikings (Jonathan Bullard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.4 pts
Q3 9:34 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% MIN +0.9 pts
Q4 10:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings, 15 yards +1% DET +1.4 pts
Q4 6:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Kerby Joseph), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.7 pts
Q4 6:52 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.7 pts
Q4 4:21 Illegal Contact on the Vikings, 5 yards +3% DET +1.5 pts
Q4 4:12 False Start on the Lions (Josh Reynolds), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.3 pts
Q4 4:12 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.2 pts
Q4 2:50 Illegal Formation on the Lions (Trevor Nowaske), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.1 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:01 The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:48 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% DET MIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:49 The Vikings converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:28 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:55 The Lions converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +12% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:00 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% DET MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 1:26 The Vikings converted 3rd & 273rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +7% MIN MIN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:58 The Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kirk Cousins (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by n.mullens · 2.4 pts
  • Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Byron Murphy (MIN CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jerry Jacobs (DET CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Alim McNeill (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Scott Daly (DET LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 91% · Vikings 9%

Final margin
Lions by 6
Luck in points
1.4 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Lions 77% · Vikings 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Lions · Vikings

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