Week 16 2023 · December 25, 2023
Ravens at 49ers, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the 49ers 33–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10. The 49ers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the 49ers.
An off day for the 49ers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%. The numbers
Before kickoff the 49ers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:08 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 24 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 33 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Ravens about even · −19 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 8, 49ers win 2.
- 1 BAL 36 SF 6
- 2 BAL 44 SF 21
- 3 BAL 33 SF 14
- 4 BAL 22 SF 7
- 5 BAL 25 SF 13
- 6 BAL 24 SF 16
- 7 BAL 28 SF 23
- 8 BAL 23 SF 21
- 9 BAL 24 SF 27
- 10 BAL 10 SF 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the 49ers
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the 49ers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | +0.13 | +0.12 | better by 0.01 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.24 | +0.00 | worse by 0.24 |
| 49ers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.24 | +0.22 | better by 0.02 |
| 49ers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.05 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 81% of them, 49ers 19%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 38.3% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 23.0% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 10.7% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 2.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Moody, 45 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Tucker, 41 yds made · 87% expected
- J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Tucker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
Penalties: Ravens 6 for 67 yards, 49ers 10 for 102 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:31 | Intentional Grounding on the Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 20 yards | +5% SF +2.0 pts |
| Q1 6:57 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Ronald Darby), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +8% SF +4.6 pts |
| Q1 3:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 21 yards | +6% BAL +2.1 pts |
| Q1 3:07 | Face Mask on the 49ers, 16 yards | +4% BAL +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:08 | Chop Block on the 49ers (Christian McCaffrey), 15 yards | +4% BAL +2.7 pts |
| Q2 3:23 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% SF +2.3 pts |
| Q2 1:20 | Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Ambry Thomas), 5 yards | +5% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:40 | Face Mask on the Ravens, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +5% SF +1.9 pts |
| Q3 13:29 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Mitch Wishnowsky), 15 yards | +2% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:29 | False Start on the 49ers (Jeremy McNichols), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:21 | Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards | +1% BAL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:47 | Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SF +1.5 pts |
| Q3 0:38 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Brandon Aiyuk), 10 yards | 0% BAL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:19 | Encroachment on the 49ers (Fred Warner), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:20 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 12 yards | 0% SF +1.5 pts |
| Q4 1:23 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.2 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:17 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +14% SF | SF: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 6:57 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Ronald Darby), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2950 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +8% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 3:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 21 yardsJudgment calls | +6% BAL | BAL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 9:38 | The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +9% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 8:08 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's handsChop Block on the 49ers (Christian McCaffrey), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 3108 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 | +24% BAL | SF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 7:10 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedZ. Flowers dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 78 catchable balls before this | +9% SF | BAL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 3:23 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% SF | SF: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 0:24 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +13% BAL | BAL: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Talanoa Hufanga (SF SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Arik Armstead (SF DT), out · 0.3 pts
- Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 99% · 49ers 1%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 14
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 18.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 81% · 49ers 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · 
Ravens · 
49ers
More from Week 16 2023
- Saints at Rams LA 30–22 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 34–11 · replay 69% for the winner
- Bills at Chargers BUF 24–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- Browns at Texans CLE 36–22 · replay 95% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings DET 30–24 · replay 77% for the winner
- Packers at Panthers GB 33–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- Colts at Falcons ATL 29–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Seahawks at Titans SEA 20–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Commanders at Jets NYJ 30–28 · replay 9% for the winner
- Jaguars at Buccaneers TB 30–12 · replay 81% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bears CHI 27–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Cowboys at Dolphins MIA 22–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Patriots at Broncos NE 26–23 · replay 50% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs LV 20–14 · replay 73% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 33–25 · replay 85% for the winner