Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023
Commanders at Jets, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?
The Jets stole one. They beat the Commanders 30–28, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Jets.
The Jets won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Jets were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:10 left): G. Zuerlein made 54-yard field goal, worth 30 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 Washington Commanders | 28 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +91 Jets very lucky · −91 Commanders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Commanders win 9, Jets win 1.
- 1 WAS 40 NYJ 5
- 2 WAS 50 NYJ 23
- 3 WAS 30 NYJ 7
- 4 WAS 44 NYJ 24
- 5 WAS 37 NYJ 21
- 6 WAS 22 NYJ 9
- 7 WAS 33 NYJ 24
- 8 WAS 23 NYJ 17
- 9 WAS 27 NYJ 25
- 10 WAS 12 NYJ 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Jets won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
49 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.05 | worse by 0.15 |
| Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.09 | +0.10 | better by 0.18 |
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | −0.09 | −0.04 | worse by 0.04 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.03 | better by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Commanders win 91% of them, Jets 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Commanders by 17+ | 56.8% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 5.8% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Jets by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 54 yds made · 68% expected
Penalties: Commanders 8 for 68 yards, Jets 14 for 150 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:04 | False Start on the Commanders (Christian Holmes), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.4 pts |
| Q1 10:28 | Illegal Touch Kick on the Commanders (Christian Holmes), 5 yards | 0% NYJ +0.4 pts |
| Q2 13:47 | Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards | +2% NYJ +1.0 pts |
| Q2 12:14 | Intentional Grounding on the Jets (Trevor Siemian), 10 yards | +1% WAS +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:04 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 32 yards | +2% NYJ +2.1 pts |
| Q2 9:35 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAS +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:17 | Encroachment on the Commanders (Tariq Castro-Fields), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYJ +2.3 pts |
| Q2 1:10 | Offensive Offside on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:49 | Intentional Grounding on the Jets (Trevor Siemian), 25 yards | +2% WAS +2.6 pts |
| Q2 0:49 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.3 pts |
| Q3 11:55 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Dyami Brown), 6 yards | +1% NYJ +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:18 | Illegal Contact on the Jets (Brandin Echols), 5 yards | 0% WAS +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:54 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Jets (Jason Brownlee), 15 yards | +1% WAS +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:06 | False Start on the Commanders (Antonio Gibson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +1.0 pts |
| Q3 1:30 | False Start on the Jets (Tyler Conklin), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:11 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | 0% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q4 9:47 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 21 yards | +2% WAS +2.1 pts |
| Q4 7:55 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 20 yards | +3% WAS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:49 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYJ +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:40 | Face Mask on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 9 yards | +9% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q4 4:52 | Defensive Offside on the Jets (Brandin Echols), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% WAS +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:42 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | +3% WAS +0.7 pts |
Commanders penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:14 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% NYJ | WAS: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:29 | The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +8% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 9:41 | J. Bates dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 37 catchable balls before this | +5% NYJ | WAS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 6:40 | Face Mask on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3541 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 | +9% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 3:56 | The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +8% NYJ | NYJ: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 1:07 | The Jets converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +7% NYJ | NYJ: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:13 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% WAS | NYJ: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:10 | The game turned hereG. Zuerlein made 54-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 49 of 70 from 45+ before | +30% NYJ | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Quinton Jefferson (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Wes Schweitzer (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out · 0.4 pts
- Jamin Davis (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Commanders 28% · Jets 72%
- Final margin
- Jets by 2
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for the Commanders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 4.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Commanders 91% · Jets 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · 
Commanders · 
Jets
More from Week 16 2023
- Saints at Rams LA 30–22 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 34–11 · replay 69% for the winner
- Bills at Chargers BUF 24–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- Browns at Texans CLE 36–22 · replay 95% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings DET 30–24 · replay 77% for the winner
- Packers at Panthers GB 33–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- Colts at Falcons ATL 29–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Seahawks at Titans SEA 20–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Jaguars at Buccaneers TB 30–12 · replay 81% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bears CHI 27–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Cowboys at Dolphins MIA 22–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Patriots at Broncos NE 26–23 · replay 50% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs LV 20–14 · replay 73% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 33–25 · replay 85% for the winner
- Ravens at 49ers BAL 33–19 · replay 81% for the winner