2023 season · final

New York Jets, 2023: game by game

The Jets went 7–10 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.3 wins. Luck added 1.7: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Bills	W 22–16	56%	+44
Week 2	@ Cowboys	L 10–30	6%	−6
Week 3	vs Patriots	L 10–15	8%	−8
Week 4	vs Chiefs	L 20–23	18%	−18
Week 5	@ Broncos	W 31–21	37%	+63
Week 6	vs Eagles	W 20–14	18%	+82
Week 8	@ Giants	W 13–10	68%	+32
Week 9	vs Chargers	L 6–27	22%	−22
Week 10	@ Raiders	L 12–16	52%	−52
Week 11	@ Bills	L 6–32	0%	0
Week 12	vs Dolphins	L 13–34	0%	0
Week 13	vs Falcons	L 8–13	6%	−6
Week 14	vs Texans	W 30–6	65%	+35
Week 15	@ Dolphins	L 0–30	0%	0
Week 16	vs Commanders	W 30–28	9%	+91
Week 17	@ Browns	L 20–37	72%	−72
Week 18	@ Patriots	W 17–3	93%	+7

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +44 vs BUF

Wk 2 −6 @ DAL

Wk 3 −8 vs NE

Wk 4 −18 vs KC

Wk 5 +63 @ DEN

Wk 6 +82 vs PHI

Wk 8 +32 @ NYG

Wk 9 −22 vs LAC

Wk 10 −52 @ LV

Wk 11 0 @ BUF

Wk 12 0 vs MIA

Wk 13 −6 vs ATL

Wk 14 +35 vs HOU

Wk 15 0 @ MIA

Wk 16 +91 vs WAS

Wk 17 −72 @ CLE

Wk 18 +7 @ NE

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.77	+11.1
Injuries	+0.52	+19.7
Drops	+0.24	+12.3
Rest	+0.07	+2.4
3rd & 4th downs	−0.06	−4.3
Judgment calls	−0.30	−26.5
Fumble bounces	−0.34	−18.9