luckadjusted

2022 season · final

New York Jets, 2022: game by game

The Jets went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Ravens L 9–24 31% −31
Week 2 @ Browns W 31–30 2% +98
Week 3 vs Bengals L 12–27 6% −6
Week 4 @ Steelers W 24–20 56% +44
Week 5 vs Dolphins W 40–17 91% +9
Week 6 @ Packers W 27–10 85% +15
Week 7 @ Broncos W 16–9 75% +25
Week 8 vs Patriots L 17–22 55% −55
Week 9 vs Bills W 20–17 40% +60
Week 11 @ Patriots L 3–10 15% −15
Week 12 vs Bears W 31–10 78% +22
Week 13 @ Vikings L 22–27 39% −39
Week 14 @ Bills L 12–20 5% −5
Week 15 vs Lions L 17–20 32% −32
Week 16 vs Jaguars L 3–19 8% −8
Week 17 @ Seahawks L 6–23 9% −9
Week 18 @ Dolphins L 6–11 20% −20

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Injuries+0.09+3.1
Rest−0.04−1.6
Fumble bounces−0.04−18.9
Kicks−0.12+12.6
3rd & 4th downs−0.19+4.8
Drops−0.28+3.7
Judgment calls−0.33−13.9