luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Jets at Packers, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Packers 27–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Packers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Packers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:46 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 21 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 27
Green Bay Packers 10

October 16, 2022 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −7.5

Luck index +15 Jets about even · −15 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 8, Packers win 2.

  1. 1 NYJ 38 GB 7
  2. 2 NYJ 38 GB 13
  3. 3 NYJ 30 GB 10
  4. 4 NYJ 35 GB 20
  5. 5 NYJ 22 GB 10
  6. 6 NYJ 26 GB 17
  7. 7 NYJ 37 GB 31
  8. 8 NYJ 6 GB 3
  9. 9 NYJ 10 GB 13
  10. 10 NYJ 11 GB 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Packers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

49 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.04 worse by 0.05
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed −0.21 +0.16 better by 0.37
Packers offenseEPA per play gained −0.21 +0.15 worse by 0.36
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.10 better by 0.11

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 85% of them, Packers 15%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+42.0%
Jets by 9–1622.8%
Jets by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation1.7%
Packers by 1–88.8%
Packers by 9–164.3%
Packers by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 17, without the luck Jets by 15.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 47 yds blocked · 78% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 53 yds missed · 65% expected
  • M. Crosby, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 7 for 79 yards, Packers 7 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:15 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Ashtyn Davis), 10 yards +3% GB +1.1 pts
Q1 6:34 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets, 15 yards +6% GB +2.2 pts
Q1 5:50 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 14:12 Chop Block on the Jets, 15 yards +2% GB +1.2 pts
Q2 12:41 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 10:09 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers, 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q3 4:35 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jordan Whitehead), 15 yards +1% GB +1.8 pts
Q3 3:17 Illegal Contact on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 5 yards +1% GB +0.9 pts
Q3 2:40 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yards +3% GB +1.0 pts
Q4 10:39 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +2% NYJ +1.6 pts
Q4 10:06 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q4 3:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Tedarrell Slaton), 2 yards 0% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q4 3:36 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.1 pts
Q4 2:37 Delay of Game on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.7 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:42 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% GB GB: Missed field goal
2 Q2 15:00 M. Crosby had a 47-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him, 17 of 20 from 45+ before +8% NYJ GB: Punt
3 Q2 11:50 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% NYJ GB: Punt
4 Q2 8:46 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Packers fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% NYJ GB: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 2:24 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% NYJ GB: Field goal
6 Q2 0:36 G. Zuerlein missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 33 of 47 from 45+ before +13% GB NYJ: Punt
7 Q3 11:16 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% NYJ GB: Punt
8 Q3 5:52 Blocked punt by the JetsSpecial teams +13% NYJ NYJ: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sammy Watkins (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bryce Hall (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Mims (NYJ WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 98% · Packers 2%

Final margin
Jets by 17
Luck in points
1.4 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 15.6
Replay with same day's form
Jets 85% · Packers 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Jets · Packers

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