Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022
Cowboys at Eagles, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Cowboys 26–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: drops alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:15 left): Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 15 yards, worth 8 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 17 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Eagles lucky · −29 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Eagles win 7.
- 1 DAL 27 PHI 12
- 2 DAL 22 PHI 14
- 3 DAL 23 PHI 20
- 4 DAL 6 PHI 8
- 5 DAL 12 PHI 16
- 6 DAL 17 PHI 24
- 7 DAL 17 PHI 26
- 8 DAL 17 PHI 30
- 9 DAL 10 PHI 27
- 10 DAL 6 PHI 29
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 29% of them, Eagles 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 3.5% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 8.5% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 22.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 51 yds made · 66% expected
- J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- B. Maher, 30 yds made · 95% expected
- B. Maher, 59 yds missed · 53% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 10 for 72 yards, Eagles 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:08 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% PHI +1.9 pts |
| Q2 7:53 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 9 yards | +1% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:21 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 8:19 | Offside on Free Kick on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:15 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 15 yards | +4% PHI +1.5 pts |
| Q3 6:59 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 7 yards | +2% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:20 | Illegal Motion on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.5 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 5 yards | +3% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:06 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 1 yard | 0% PHI +0.1 pts |
| Q4 4:24 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.1 pts |
| Q4 1:04 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Jayron Kearse), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:58 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 15 yards | 0% PHI +1.8 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:11 | A. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 33 catchable balls before this | +4% DAL | PHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:57 | D. Goedert dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 29 catchable balls before this | +5% DAL | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:28 | The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +8% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:08 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 12 flags in 2167 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 | +7% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 5:24 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +6% PHI | DAL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 8:15 | The Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1269 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 | +8% PHI | PHI: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 12:33 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:30 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 5.0 pts
- Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Dalton Schultz (DAL TE), out · 1.0 pts
- Nahshon Wright (DAL CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 43% · Eagles 57%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 9
- Luck in points
- 15.0 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 6.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 29% · Eagles 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · 
Cowboys · 
Eagles
More from Week 6 2022
- Commanders at Bears WAS 12–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ravens at Giants NYG 24–20 · replay 33% for the winner
- Bengals at Saints CIN 30–26 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 34–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Vikings at Dolphins MIN 24–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Patriots at Browns NE 38–15 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jets at Packers NYJ 27–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- 49ers at Falcons ATL 28–14 · replay 73% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Steelers PIT 20–18 · replay 27% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 19–9 · replay 83% for the winner
- Panthers at Rams LA 24–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs BUF 24–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 19–16 · replay 32% for the winner