Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022
Cardinals at Seahawks, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 19–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Cardinals: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Cardinals were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:59 left): Return touchdown by the Cardinals, worth 22 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 9 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Seahawks about even · −17 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 2, Seahawks win 8.
- 1 ARI 27 SEA 13
- 2 ARI 20 SEA 17
- 3 ARI 10 SEA 12
- 4 ARI 20 SEA 26
- 5 ARI 23 SEA 31
- 6 ARI 6 SEA 17
- 7 ARI 10 SEA 24
- 8 ARI 16 SEA 33
- 9 ARI 6 SEA 27
- 10 ARI 12 SEA 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Cardinals
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Cardinals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | −0.19 | +0.09 | worse by 0.28 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.07 | +0.13 | better by 0.20 |
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | −0.07 | +0.14 | worse by 0.22 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.19 | +0.14 | better by 0.33 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 17% of them, Seahawks 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 1.6% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 3.7% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 9.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 22.7% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 41.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Ammendola, 23 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Myers, 39 yds made · 88% expected
- J. Myers, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Myers, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- J. Myers, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Cardinals 6 for 53 yards, Seahawks 6 for 44 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:20 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:52 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% ARI +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:14 | False Start on the Seahawks, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:24 | Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 10 yards | +2% ARI +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:04 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards | +3% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:38 | Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals, 15 yards | +2% SEA +1.3 pts |
| Q3 6:39 | Defensive Holding on the Cardinals, 5 yards | +3% SEA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:12 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SEA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:55 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% SEA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 6:52 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 13 yards | +3% SEA +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:12 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +1% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:14 | Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI +0.1 pts |
Cardinals penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:45 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +12% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:26 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +9% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 3:01 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +10% ARI | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +8% SEA | ARI: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 4:02 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% SEA | ARI: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 1:12 | The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ARI | ARI: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 0:59 | The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Seahawks fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams | +22% ARI | SEA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:12 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +8% SEA | ARI: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Gabe Jackson (SEA G), out · 0.4 pts
- Rashaad Penny (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Tyler Ott (SEA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out · 0.6 pts
- Antoine Wesley (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
- James Conner (ARI RB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 32% · Seahawks 68%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 10
- Luck in points
- 8.3 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 17% · Seahawks 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · 
Cardinals · 
Seahawks
More from Week 6 2022
- Commanders at Bears WAS 12–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ravens at Giants NYG 24–20 · replay 33% for the winner
- Bengals at Saints CIN 30–26 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 34–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Vikings at Dolphins MIN 24–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Patriots at Browns NE 38–15 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jets at Packers NYJ 27–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- 49ers at Falcons ATL 28–14 · replay 73% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Steelers PIT 20–18 · replay 27% for the winner
- Panthers at Rams LA 24–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs BUF 24–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 26–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 19–16 · replay 32% for the winner